Local elections also on France's agenda: 'Promising for the opposition'

The results that emerged in the local elections held on March 31 continue to be discussed by experts in France as well. They have even reignited debates in France regarding Turkey. Experts interviewed by VOA Turkish, while analyzing the effects of the election results in all their dimensions, also used significant expressions they had not previously used regarding Turkey.

Stating that the voters, who went to the polls in large numbers and "determined their own destiny," proved to the whole world that "Turkey is not Russia and President Erdoğan is not Putin," the experts shared the view that "the Turkish voter gave a democracy lesson to an aging Europe." Furthermore, the experts called on a group of French media members and experts who have used a "mocking" tone regarding Turkey to date to "change this tone and engage in self-criticism."

“THERE IS A NEW MOMENTUM IN TURKEY”

In France, attention is focused most on the words President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan uttered following his election defeat, "For us, March 31 is not an end, but a turning point," and the message from Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu that "the decline of democracy in Turkey has ended."

International relations expert and political science lecturer Bertrand Badie evaluated the elections on France Culture Radio with the words, "A dazzling victory for Turkish democratic culture." Stating that a young and dynamic Turkey gave a great "democracy lesson" to an aging Europe, Badie said, "To an aging continent like ours, where voter turnout barely reaches 50 percent, the dynamic Turkish society gave a virtual lesson in democratic culture with a turnout rate approaching 80 percent. Despite great difficulties and authoritarian drift, the voters went to the polls with a real culture of democracy and took ownership of their destiny. The same goes for the opposition's victory. Now, there is no lesson you can give to a Turkey in this state."

Badie said, "I want to underline one thing. There is a new momentum in Turkey. People should stop making fun of this country. Cheap jokes using words like 'sultan' or 'dictator,' and remarks and approaches that bordered on racism when it was a candidate for EU membership, were not right. In my opinion, this tone should be reviewed. Turkey is a democracy and a new model," adding that Turkey should be approached more objectively.

“FRENCH MEDIA SHOULD ENGAGE IN SELF-CRITICISM REGARDING TURKEY”

Drawing attention to the way the French media covered the elections, Prof. Didier Billion, Deputy Director of the IRIS Institute for International and Strategic Affairs and a Turkey expert, stated in his remarks to VOA Turkish, "In the media, 'dictator' headlines were suddenly replaced by 'the beginning of the end for Erdoğan' headlines. Before the elections, everything was black; now everything is white. Those who wrote all these headlines need to engage in self-criticism today. The Erdoğan regime is an authoritarian regime. Of course, Erdoğan's political choices are not Europe's preference. But Erdoğan is not elected with 90 percent, and furthermore, Turkey is not limited to Erdoğan. The Turkish society showed that it resisted the anti-democratic attacks of the regime. A third point is that, whoever governs, Turkey is an indispensable partner for Europe and NATO."

THE EXAMPLE OF POLAND AND DONALD TUSK

Journalist-author and diplomacy expert Sylvie Kauffmann, one of the lead writers for Le Monde newspaper, participated in a discussion program on France Culture Radio and cited the election victory of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who took power from the conservative government in Poland, as an example, saying, "Even if the regime is authoritarian, the voters showed the power to change the regime, just as in Poland. This is a local election, but it is also important on a national scale. If the opposition succeeds in building a new power with society, it can change the government as in Poland. İmamoğlu has emerged as a real alternative for 2028. The main reason for Erdoğan's loss is the economy and inflation. Moreover, he has become too weak personally to carry out the Constitutional amendment. From now on, I think Erdoğan will have to struggle a lot with purchasing power and inflation."

"THE RESISTANCE OF TURKISH DEMOCRACY"

Bayram Balcı, a researcher at the Center for International Studies (CERI/Sciences Po) in Paris and former director of the French Institute for Anatolian Studies in Istanbul, also supported Bertrand Badie's analysis in his extensive election analysis for VOA Turkish, stating, "Turkey is neither Russia, nor is Erdoğan Putin. The greatest lesson to be drawn from these elections is the dynamism of Turkish democracy and the fact that the voters showed the whole world that Turkey is not China or Russia. The real victory is the resistance of Turkish democracy."

Balcı continued, "However, what is more striking are the results of the votes cast on a national scale. Indeed, for the first time since the beginning of its history, the AKP is not the party that received the most votes. With 35 percent of the vote, it remained behind the CHP, which created a major surprise by receiving 37 percent. Time will tell whether this is a sanction vote given in reaction to the economic situation, or the beginning of a deeper structural uprising that could be reproduced in future parliamentary or presidential elections. These figures are promising for the opposition."

Balcı continued his words by saying, "İmamoğlu is on his way to becoming a person who could unseat Erdoğan. He won a duel against Erdoğan for the third time, and the victory on March 31 strengthened Ekrem İmamoğlu even further. Born in 1971, Ekrem İmamoğlu, whose popularity transcends the city's borders, will face Erdoğan, who will be 74 years old in the general elections to be held in 2028, with his youth. The wind is in his favor."

Prof. Samim Akgönül, a historian and political scientist and lecturer at the University of Strasbourg, who also spoke to VOA, offered a different perspective, even though he agreed with the view of the "victory of democracy."

“THE VOTER OVERTURNED THE TABLE”

While analyzing the elections from within Turkey, Prof. Akgönül stated, "The CHP received 37 percent of the vote; this is a big surprise. But here I want to draw your attention to another surprise, or even a revolution, a miracle. All 6 members of the 'Table of Six,' which was shown as a hope in the previous elections, were politically buried; not a single person remained. There is no one left who was shown as hope 10 months ago; the voter overturned the table. It means they have been deceiving themselves for months."

Stating that Ekrem İmamoğlu has proven himself as an alternative power, Akgönül said, "İmamoğlu reminds me of Turgut Özal, who could get votes from all segments, and Jacques Chirac, who jumped from the Paris Municipality to the presidency. Let's watch; there is still a long time until the elections."

“THE ERDOĞAN-İMAMOĞLU RIVALRY HAS COME TO THE FORE”

Experts underline that even though he lost the local elections, President Erdoğan is still in power and emphasize that the "Tayyip Erdoğan-Ekrem İmamoğlu" rivalry has clearly come to the fore.

Prof. Billion makes the following assessment, saying, "The election results point to a significant change in the balance of political power in Turkey, but the future is not yet written. Erdoğan continues to be firmly at the head of the country and relies on a presidential regime suited to his needs. He still has a parliamentary majority and controls a large part of the media and the judiciary. But despite all this, the March 31 results still carry great importance and represent a real turning point":

"The results make the current 'Erdoğan-İmamoğlu' match more likely. A tired man of 70, against İmamoğlu. (İmamoğlu) is 20 years younger than him, dynamic, popular, and knows how to speak to the public. Symbolically, the positive dynamism is on the side of the CHP. But I don't think Erdoğan will sit idly by with his hands tied. Gezi, the coup attempt... if you look at his political career, you can see this. The elections have placed significant responsibilities on the CHP. Secular voters and especially Kurdish voters in large cities voted for the CHP. In the CHP's future success, whether it can be a party that opens up more to society, and what kind of stance it will take on issues like secularism and the Kurdish question, will be decisive. These two issues are not new, but the situation is new. I think İmamoğlu has the capacity to unite society by overcoming the segments that refuse to compromise. For the CHP, the answer it will give to these two questions is very important. Turkey is entering a highly exciting political period."

“THERE IS NOW A NEW GENERATION IN TURKEY”

Bertrand Badie notes that a new generation is forming in Turkey, and this new generation is "a dynamic young generation that is aware of the world, wants politics to change, and is in search of a new model."

Badie said, "There is a youth that wants to separate religion from politics. Mansur Yavaş and Ekrem İmamoğlu are two names who live their religion openly and want to keep secularism alive without denying the place of religion in private life. This is a new situation and very, very important. The concept of secularism is changing, the AKP is changing, and the CHP is changing. The rise of the New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi) is also an interesting point. The melting of the MHP and the fact that the Kurdish party was able to take major cities are also important findings. Now, what is important is whether there will be interference with DEM Party municipalities or with İmamoğlu and Yavaş?"

Bayram Balcı also warned that there is still a very long time until the presidential elections, saying, "The road is still long, winding, and chaotic. The opposition needs to prove itself to the voters in all the cities it controls. At the same time, neither the major crisis in Turkey nor the one in the Middle East should disrupt the opposition's caravan."