Presidential system brought 'misery': We have become 3.5 times poorer!

Renowned economist Mahfi Eğilmez has penned an article drawing attention to the relationship between the Presidential System and the Misery Index. Eğilmez stated, "The misery index, like other indices and indicators, shows that misery in Turkey has increased with the transition to the presidential system."

THE TABLE REVEALED THE TRUTH

Eğilmez's article is as follows:

"When the misery index was first introduced by Arthur Okun, it was an indicator consisting of the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate:

Okun Misery Index = Inflation Rate + Unemployment Rate

Since rising unemployment indicates an increase in the number of people without income, and rising inflation indicates that life is becoming more expensive, a rise in the index shows that misery is increasing, and therefore, a deterioration is occurring in the economy. Over time, the index was reformulated by Robert Barro and Steve Hanke (HAMI misery index). In its reformulated form, the index can be expressed with the following equation:

HAMI Misery Index = (Inflation Rate + Unemployment Rate + Interest Rate) – Growth Rate

The interest rate used here is the ten-year government bond yield. If the growth rate is positive, meaning the economy has grown, this rate should be subtracted because economic growth reduces misery. Conversely, if the growth rate is negative, meaning the economy has shrunk, then this rate must be added to the sum because negative growth brings an increase in misery.

The table below shows the development of the HAMI misery index in Turkey over the years (The inflation, unemployment, and growth rates in the table were taken from the TUIK website, and the 10-year bond interest rates were taken from the Bloomberg HT website.)

"THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT WAS PROMISED HAPPENED"

In 2017, Turkey abandoned the separation of powers system and switched to a presidential system. The vote held for this purpose was not exactly aimed at this. The idea was that there would be a presidential system, but the separation of powers, judicial independence, and the separation of the legislature from the executive would continue. Only the President, as the head of the executive, would truly be at the head of the executive, not just symbolically. However, the implementation did not turn out that way. As a result of party discipline being controlled by the President, the legislature came under the command of the executive, judicial independence gradually disappeared, and we arrived at today's system of a single authorized president. Throughout this transition period, what was always told was that the difficulties Turkey suffered from coalitions would be left behind, that it would move forward by making faster decisions in every field, that its prosperity would increase, and that it would rise in world rankings.

The exact opposite of what was promised happened. After switching to the presidential system, Turkey regressed in every field. In my previous articles, I shared Turkey's social, political, and economic indicators in comparison with other countries in the world within the framework of indices from various neutral organizations. These comparisons revealed that Turkey has been constantly regressing since switching to the presidential system.

The misery index, like other indices and indicators, shows that misery in Turkey has increased with the transition to the presidential system. When we look at the 2022 results, Turkey ranks 10th (worst) in the world in the misery index when ranked from worst to best."