Sweden's NATO membership: What if Biden doesn't keep his word!

The legislative proposal regarding the ratification of Sweden's NATO accession protocol will come before the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) General Assembly in the coming days. 12punto columnist Bahadır Selim Dilek writes about what Turkey needs to do:

At a time when Erdoğan is struggling to find political material to sell domestically ahead of the local elections, the F-16 negotiations conducted with the US over Sweden's NATO membership have finally reached an end.

The legislative proposal regarding the ratification of Sweden's NATO accession protocol has been accepted by the Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, and all eyes have turned to the Parliament General Assembly.

Two possible dates are being discussed for the proposal to reach the General Assembly.

Sweden's NATO accession protocol will either be voted on December 28 or left until after the deputies' New Year holiday.

If the Parliament says "yes," Turkey will have officially approved Sweden's NATO membership. In other words, there is no turning back after this stage.

However, the government wants to see a concrete step from Biden. But what this concrete step will be is currently unknown. Because the process is more or less clear. Even if they are to be carried out simultaneously, one of the two countries must finalize the process first.

It appears that this country will be Turkey.

While providing information on December 14 regarding the negotiations with the US, Erdoğan stated that Biden had told him, "You approve Sweden's membership, and I will work to get the F-16 sale through Congress."

Anyone with a modicum of diplomatic literacy can understand that this sentence does not provide Turkey with a solid "guarantee" regarding the F-16s, and that Biden has left himself "wiggle room" with a clever political maneuver. Moreover, the US Department of State has not yet initiated the process for the sale of 40 F-16 fighter jets and the supply of 80 modernization kits to be discussed in Congress.

Naturally, this creates a lack of trust, but it is not very possible for the government to reverse course after this stage.

According to what is being discussed in the capital's corridors, despite all the bluster, Erdoğan does not have the power to resist Biden. He wants the F-16 issue to be resolved before the local elections so that he can consolidate both his base and the nationalist, religious segments with the rhetoric he will generate from this.

In fact, the government should have postponed the vote in the Foreign Affairs Committee after the PKK martyred 12 Turkish soldiers in Hakurk and Metina.

One way or another, it was impossible for the PKK, which cannot even take a step without the knowledge and permission of the US, to engage in such a bloody act.

Erdoğan knew better than anyone that the US provides all the materials the PKK needs, from weapons to ammunition, camouflage to radios, satellite phones to vehicles, and rations to binoculars; that it stands behind the organization politically, organizes joint exercises with terrorists in the region, and provides military and political training.

In other words, the US was the one primarily responsible for the martyrdom of the 12 soldiers.

For this reason, the Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee should have taken a stance that would demonstrate Turkey's reaction.

But it didn't happen; the government didn't have the nerve.

Even if the legislative proposal is accepted in the Parliament General Assembly, there is no guarantee that a decision will emerge from the US Congress that will satisfy Turkey regarding the F-16s.

Let's say the US Congress says "yes" to the F-16 modernization as Turkey wants, but hedges on the sale; what kind of approach will the government adopt then?

Since the issue of Sweden's NATO membership will no longer be a subject of negotiation, Erdoğan will have no leverage left against Biden.

The government is trying to conduct diplomacy by trial and error amidst dozens of uncertainties. Let us conclude our article by saying that the government wing, especially Erdoğan, is currently in a state of anxious waiting.