A decision that could shift the balance in the IMM Assembly
If the prison sentence against Ekrem İmamoğlu is upheld by the Court of Cassation, a new election process for the IMM Presidency could be brought to the agenda in the assembly.
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The Court of Cassation process regarding the 2-year, 7-month, and 15-day prison sentence given to Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in the case publicly known as the "fool case" has become a critical issue for the IMM administration.
It is stated that if the file is upheld by the 4th Criminal Chamber of the Court of Cassation, a new election process for the IMM Presidency could be brought to the agenda in the municipal assembly. This possibility has reopened the debate on the IMM Assembly arithmetic, which changed following the March 31 local elections.
ASSEMBLY ARITHMETIC HAS BECOME CRITICAL
In the March 31 local elections, the CHP won 186 seats in the IMM Assembly, while the People's Alliance won 130. While the number of district municipalities won by the CHP was recorded as 26, it is stated that this number has fallen to 18 due to subsequent arrests, resignations, and party changes. It is noted that the number of districts managed by the AKP has risen to 19.
The appointment of trustees to the Esenyurt and Şişli municipalities during this process was also among the developments affecting the local government landscape in Istanbul. It was reported that after the split between the CHP and the YENI Party, while the IMM Assembly members remained within the CHP, the resignations and defections that occurred following the operations against the IMM and the arrest of İmamoğlu changed the balance of the assembly.
According to the latest figures, it is stated that the number of CHP members in the IMM Assembly has fallen to 154, while the number of People's Alliance members has fallen to 142. For this reason, it is assessed that in a possible presidential election, a small number of votes could determine the outcome.
It is suggested that if 7 assembly members from the CHP were to switch to the ranks of the People's Alliance, the seat distribution could turn in favor of the People's Alliance. In this scenario, the number of seats for the People's Alliance would rise to 149, while the number of seats for the CHP would fall to 147.
The process known as the "fool case" began with the controversy that occurred after the cancellation of the March 31 Istanbul elections. After the then-Minister of Interior Süleyman Soylu used the term "fool" (ahmak) in reference to İmamoğlu, İmamoğlu had said, "Those who canceled the election are the fools."
In the case opened upon the complaint of YSK members, the Istanbul 7th Criminal Court of First Instance had issued a prison sentence and a political ban against İmamoğlu on December 15, 2022. After the appellate court upheld the decision, the file was moved to the Court of Cassation.