Alliance scenario between AKP and DEM Party!

Although there are approximately two years left until the general elections in Turkey, expectations of an early election and potential alliances are heating up the political atmosphere. Eyes have turned to whether there will be a possible cooperation between the AKP and the DEM Party.

It is known that since the day the AKP came to power, it has formed flexible alliances with different social segments. Most recently, following the joint report of the National Solidarity, Brotherhood and Democracy Commission in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) accepted on February 18, inter-party contacts have gained momentum. The visits of Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş to the MHP, CHP, and DEM Party on February 24, followed by the AKP and the New Way group, were among the most notable steps of this process.

THE DOOR WAS LEFT AJAR

While discussions on a new constitution continue, it is being commented that the government is seeking cooperation with different parties to strengthen its hand in the parliamentary arithmetic. The remarks of AKP Deputy Chairman Ahmet Büyükgümüş on Kanal 7, "We will walk with whoever strengthens us. If you are asking specifically about the DEM Party, the shape of this will be seen in time," were evaluated as leaving the door ajar for a possible alliance.

The DEM Party has 56 deputies, and this number could play a decisive role in critical processes such as constitutional amendments. In Parliament, 360 votes are required to take a constitutional amendment to a referendum, and 400 are required to change it without a referendum. The People's Alliance, together with the MHP, has a total of 322 seats; therefore, the support of the DEM Party and other small parties carries strategic importance.

In statements coming from the DEM Party front, it is stated that no election or constitutional bargaining has taken place with the AKP and that the party is focused on its own agenda.

Political scientist İbrahim Uslu points out that the DEM Party has distanced itself from the opposition recently and predicts that this situation will also be effective in voter behavior. According to Uslu, "In the upcoming election process, we will see the DEM Party as a party that acts completely independently. I assess that it will not be in any open or secret cooperation, especially with the CHP." Nevertheless, Uslu expresses that it is possible for a significant portion of the DEM Party voters to take a stance in favor of Erdoğan if the election goes to a second round: "It is now a likely situation for a significant portion of the DEM Party voters to be in a stance in favor of Erdoğan in the second round."

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's words in July 2025, "The AK Party, the Nationalist Movement Party, and DEM, we have decided to walk this path together at least as a trio... Let everyone know that there is no need to clench fists anymore. We will embrace. We will talk. We will walk by taking steps toward each other," had shown how this possible rapprochement resonated in the political atmosphere.

RELATIONS WITH DEM COMPLETELY SEVERED

While the demand for early elections continues from the opposition front, it is assessed that the DEM Party has almost completely severed its relations with the main opposition. Within the party, expectations for a new political transformation and renewal are constantly on the agenda; it is also being discussed in the corridors that the role of the party's founder, Abdullah Öcalan, could increase during this process.

THE 50+1 RIDDLE

Looking at the history of alliances of the AKP, it is seen that it established periodic cooperations with liberals and Kurdish voters in its founding years, and later with nationalist blocs and various structures. The People's Alliance, which strengthened especially with the MHP after 2015, continues on its path with the rhetoric of political stability. Internally, the debate on changing the 50+1 rule and the continuity of the presidential system are also on the agenda.

In the coming period, it seems that the parliamentary arithmetic in both the constitutional amendment and the Presidential election will largely depend on the position of the DEM Party. For this reason, whether the People's Alliance can reach the targeted majority of votes with the support of the DEM Party is frequently discussed in the corridors. Especially Erdoğan's re-nomination and the future of constitutional amendments will be shaped by these inter-party equations.