Anxiety in the AKP over Istanbul: The election is not a foregone conclusion

There is less than 2 months left until the March 31, 2024 local elections. Istanbul is at the top of the list of cities where there is the most curiosity regarding the critical elections.

The AKP has fielded Murat Kurum against the incumbent IBB Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in order to win back Istanbul, which it lost in 2019.

Having decided to enter the local elections 'freely and independently', the İYİ Party will compete with Buğra Kavuncu, the Saadet Party with Birol Aydın, and the Victory Party (Zafer Partisi) with Azmi Karamahmutoğlu.

While Başak Demirtaş's withdrawal from the candidacy for the DEM Party has brought different names to the agenda, the New Welfare Party (YRP), which closed its doors to an alliance with the AKP, is expected to announce its candidates on February 10.

"NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION"

In the latest assessments made from the ruling front, it is being discussed that "the elections in Istanbul are not a foregone conclusion."

According to a report by Selda Güneysu from Cumhuriyet, it is stated that while the People's Alliance's joint candidate Murat Kurum "is managing the election campaign process well, İmamoğlu's influence in the city is also significant." The following views are being expressed within the party as to "why the election in Istanbul will not be easy":

THE INFLUENCE OF TRADESPEOPLE

Emphasis is placed on the fact that the incumbent IBB Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, whom the CHP has nominated again, is from Trabzon. While it is noted that Istanbul has received significant migration from the Black Sea region and that there is a large population of Black Sea origin in the city, assessments are being made that "tradespeople from the Black Sea region may take a stance in favor of İmamoğlu."

YRP IS ‘SPLITTING’ THE VOTE

No "positive" result came out of the long-standing cooperation talks between the AKP and the YRP regarding the local elections, particularly in the three major metropolitan cities, and YRP Chairman Fatih Erbakan announced that they would enter the elections in Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir with their own candidates. The YRP's decision is being evaluated within the AKP with the words, "It will split our party's votes."

KARAMAHMUTOĞLU MAY AFFECT MHP VOTES

It is being discussed within the AKP that the Victory Party has nominated former Idealist Hearths (Ülkü Ocakları) Chairman Azmi Karamahmutoğlu, and that because Karamahmutoğlu is also from Trabzon like Ekrem İmamoğlu, he "could affect MHP votes." It is pointed out that nationalist voters recognize Karamahmutoğlu as "the last Idealist Hearths Chairman appointed by MHP founding leader Alparslan Türkeş while he was alive."

BAŞAK DEMİRTAŞ WITHDREW

Within the AKP, it is argued that with the withdrawal of Başak Demirtaş, the wife of former HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş, from the candidacy, "İmamoğlu's chances of winning have increased." While it is recalled that the DEM Party has also decided to participate in the elections independently and announced that it would field a candidate in Istanbul, it is stated that a portion of the Kurdish voters in Istanbul "will support İmamoğlu."

‘A LARGE MAJORITY OF İYİ PARTY MEMBERS SUPPORT İMAMOĞLU’

While it is recalled that the İYİ Party has nominated Buğra Kavuncu, the assessment within the AKP is that "a large majority of İYİ Party members support İmamoğlu."