Area Research President Murat Karan gives rates for Istanbul elections: The IYI Party and DEM Party detail

İYİ Party Chairman Meral Akşener nominated İYİ Party Istanbul Deputy Buğra Kavuncu as her party's Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayoral Candidate 2 weeks ago, and subsequently, the DEM Party also announced that it would field a candidate in Istanbul.

Thus, the number of official and potential candidates in Istanbul has risen to 7. Furthermore, with the exception of the Felicity Party (Saadet) and the Future Party (Gelecek), all partners in the former Nation Alliance have decided to field separate candidates.

With only days left until the local elections, the question of who will win the election in Istanbul has become a matter of curiosity.

Area Research President Murat Karan answered 12punto.com.tr's questions regarding Istanbul's election agenda.

"İMAMOĞLU AND KURUM ARE NECK-AND-NECK IN THE 42-45 PERCENT BAND"

The IYI Party nominated Buğra Kavuncu in Istanbul. It is alleged that the DEM Party's Istanbul candidate will be Başak Demirtaş. How do these two names affect Ekrem İmamoğlu?

"The DEM Party has not yet announced its candidate. It should be evaluated after they announce it. For now, there are two main actors in Istanbul. These are Mr. İmamoğlu and Mr. Kurum. They started with a vote potential in the 42-45 percent band. The field performance of the candidates from the Victory Party (Zafer), New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah), IYI Party, and the DEM Party, and how much they can convince their voters to vote for their own party's candidate, will of course become clear during the campaign process. The performance of the mayoral candidates these parties show in the districts will also be a factor. Because when voters go to the ballot box, they do not just vote for the metropolitan candidate, but also for district municipal council members and district mayoral candidates. This is a situation that affects and triggers voting behavior. Looking at it from this perspective, the race between Mr. İmamoğlu and Mr. Kurum appears neck-and-neck in the 42-45 percent band we see in current polls. In the candidacies of these names, the candidates of the IYI Party and the DEM Party in particular will cause more vote loss for Mr. İmamoğlu. On the other hand, the New Welfare Party, Felicity Party, and DEVA Party appear to have a higher potential to draw votes from the AK Party candidate.

THE DEM PARTY AND IYI PARTY DETAIL

There are debates regarding whether the DEM Party and the IYI Party can maintain their votes. What is the state of loyalty of these two parties' voters to their parties?

It has not been tested yet for the IYI Party. The DEM Party, under its former name HDP, ran with its strongest candidate, Sırrı Süreyya Önder, in the 2014 Istanbul elections. The HDP had received 13 percent of the vote in Istanbul in the 2011 elections, but in the 2014 elections, Mr. Sırrı Süreyya received 4 percent. In other words, while one-third of the DEM Party base votes with loyalty to their party, the remaining two-thirds turn to other major dominant candidates. The DEM received 8 percent and the TİP received 4 percent. There is a total vote block of 12 percent. They can maintain about 4 points of that 12 percent vote block, while the other vote—that is, the vast majority—currently appears to be Mr. İmamoğlu's voter base. When we ask IYI Party voters, party loyalty is approximately half and half. They received 8 percent of the vote in Istanbul in the last election. There is a possibility of bringing half of this 8 percent vote to the ballot box with party loyalty. But the other half has a higher tendency to turn toward Mr. İmamoğlu.

ERDOĞAN'S HATAY STATEMENTS

Could President Erdoğan's statement regarding Hatay create a fracture for his party?

In elections, such rhetoric and mutual gaffes can happen, and they will. I do not think this situation will cause a very sharp fracture in the voters' voting behavior.

YRP EFFECT IN ISTANBUL: "EVEN SMALL VOTE PERCENTAGES WILL BE VERY EFFECTIVE"

How do you see the situation of the New Welfare Party? Could it put the AK Party in a difficult position?

In a place where the race is this close, even 0.5 percent of the vote is very effective and critical for a candidate, especially for the AK Party and CHP candidates. It is a rate that will affect the result. In the March 31, 2019 elections in Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu won in the first round with a margin of 13 thousand votes. In that election, the Felicity Party candidate received over 100 thousand votes. When we look at the fabric of that voter profile, the tendency to vote for Mr. Binali was higher. In other words, if the Felicity Party had not fielded a candidate in Istanbul in 2019, the probability of Mr. Binali winning the election on March 31 would have been higher. For this reason, even the small vote percentages that parties will receive will be very effective.

"A DISADVANTAGE FOR THE OPPOSITION"

Apart from the candidates, what other factors do you think could have an impact?

The alliance models of political parties did not form, especially in the opposition. The opposition side will all go to the election with their own candidates. This causes a fragmentation. Especially when we look at the results of the last presidential election in Istanbul, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu received 52 percent and Mr. Erdoğan received 48 percent. The 52 percent opposition block has split, and they are all fielding their own candidates. But the People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) opposite them fielded their candidates as a block. This is a huge disadvantage for the opposition.

"HÜDA-PAR IS NOT VERY EFFECTIVE"

Will the opposition's use of HÜDA-PAR's statements have an impact on nationalist voters?

Propaganda through HÜDA-PAR is not very effective. We saw this in the 2023 elections as well. It had been used.