Critical calculation at IMM while awaiting Supreme Court ruling: Could the council arithmetic shift the presidency to the AKP?

The possibility that the Supreme Court will uphold the conviction in the trial against Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, known publicly as the "fool case," has brought discussions regarding the future of the IMM administration back to the agenda.

İmamoğlu was arrested and removed from office in March 2025; following this, the IMM Council elected CHP member Nuri Aslan as deputy mayor. Since İmamoğlu still retains the title of elected mayor, Aslan serves as deputy mayor, not as the mayor.

However, if the verdict in the "fool case" is finalized, the situation will change. If İmamoğlu loses his eligibility to be elected, his mayoral status will end, and the IMM Council will have to elect a new metropolitan mayor, not just a deputy mayor.

THE BALANCE IN THE COUNCIL HAS CHANGED

Following the March 31, 2024 local elections, the opposition held the majority in the IMM Council. Excluding the Metropolitan Mayor, the CHP had 186 members, the AKP 122, the MHP 6, and the BBP 2. The total number of members of the People's Alliance was 130.

The fact that Nuri Aslan was elected deputy mayor with 177 votes in the third round in the vote held after İmamoğlu's removal from office also demonstrated the majority at that time. However, in the time that has passed, investigations into district municipalities, removals from office, and party defections have changed the arithmetic of the IMM Council.

According to the latest figures, the CHP has 154 members in the IMM Council, while the People's Alliance has 142. Among the 154 names in the CHP group are members of DEM Party origin who entered the Council as part of the "urban consensus," as well as names close to the New Party.

For this reason, the margin in a potential mayoral election has fallen to a critical level. The 12-member difference between the CHP and the People's Alliance can be equalized if six members switch sides. The fact that the election will be held by secret ballot also makes it difficult to determine with certainty which candidate the members are supporting.

The change in district municipalities in Istanbul has also directly affected the balance of the metropolitan municipality. In the 2024 elections, the CHP won 26 of the 39 districts, while the AKP won 13. Since district mayors are natural members of the metropolitan council, management changes in the districts were reflected in the IMM Council.

Following the removal of mayors from office in Esenyurt and Şişli, the administrations were placed under trustees. In Beykoz, Gaziosmanpaşa, Bayrampaşa, Üsküdar, and the Adalar, changes in favor of the AKP occurred as a result of deputy mayoral processes or renewed voting. The fact that mayors elected from the CHP in Tuzla and Çekmeköy joined the AKP was also among the developments that affected the balance.

Following these developments, the number of districts managed by the CHP in Istanbul fell from 26 to 16, while the number of districts managed by the AKP rose from 13 to 21. Esenyurt and Şişli are currently under trustee administration.

CHP AND NEW PARTY CALCULATION

The possibility of an election at the IMM also makes the stance of members close to the CHP and the New Party important. CHP Spokesperson and Deputy Chairman Responsible for Local Governments Müslim Sarı said in an assessment with journalists on September 23 that they see the risk of the IMM falling into the hands of the ruling power.

There is a real risk ahead regarding the IMM, and we are taking every care to ensure it does not pass to the AKP.

New Party Chairman Özgür Özel stated that they do not want council members close to them to resign from the CHP to prevent division in the IMM, expressing that they are acting "so that there is no duality and the IMM is not put in danger."

Although both sides are taking a position to prevent the IMM from passing to the AKP, it remains uncertain how the political tension between the CHP and the New Party will be reflected in a potential Council vote.

HOW WILL A POTENTIAL ELECTION BE HELD?

According to the Municipal Law, if the office of mayor becomes vacant, the governor of the relevant province ensures that the municipal council meets within ten days. The council members elect the new mayor from among themselves.

In the first two rounds of the secret ballot, a two-thirds majority of the total number of members is required. A simple majority is sufficient in the third round. If no result is obtained in this round, a fourth round is held between the two candidates who received the most votes, and the candidate who receives more votes is elected mayor.

For this reason, the potential decision from the Supreme Court is seen as critical not only in terms of İmamoğlu's legal status but also in terms of how the political majority will be shaped in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality.