Early election calculations in Ankara corridors: The ruling party is waiting for these two developments

Following the absolute nullity (definitive invalidity) ruling issued on May 21 regarding the CHP congress, new assessments continue to be made in political corridors. Following the process in which CHP Chairman Özgür Özel was removed from office by the decision of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice, and former Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the party boards from before the congress were reinstated, striking claims regarding potential plans within the ruling camp have come to the fore.

Nefes Gazetesi columnist Nuray Babacan shared the assessments discussed in ruling party corridors in her article titled "Autumn plans in politics" following the absolute nullity ruling.

CLAIM THAT "ÖZGÜR ÖZEL WAS EXPECTED TO LOSE POWER"

Babacan claimed that ruling circles expected CHP Chairman Özgür Özel to emerge from the process having lost power, but that the resulting picture is being evaluated differently.

Stating that the question "Is a new plan being prepared?" has come to the agenda in her article, Babacan used the following expressions:

"While it was expected that Özgür Özel would lose power, his evolution into a point that mobilizes the masses was not really expected by the ruling wing. Just like the AKP members who said 'They will take to the squares for three months and then go home' after the March 19 IMM operation, only to see that this did not happen. Özgür Özel's dominance on the streets has created disappointment."

"POSSIBILITY OF NEW DETENTIONS AND ARRESTS IS BEING DISCUSSED"

Nuray Babacan stated that claims of new operations are also being voiced in political corridors.

Babacan included the following assessments in her article:

"There are politicians who say that if the effort to create a strong backbone that would put the government in a difficult position continues, new game plans may be made to trip them up. Özgür Özel and his team continue to stand tall despite all the fears created. It is being said that new fears could be created, and that methods such as arrests and detentions could be resorted to, even if not against the entire team, then through certain names."

CLAIM THAT "LIFTING IMMUNITY IS ALSO BEING DISCUSSED"

According to the inside information conveyed by Babacan, it is claimed that some figures within the ruling party believe the absolute nullity process against the CHP is proceeding as expected.

The article stated that the lifting of immunities and legal processes are also among the topics discussed in the corridors, and it was claimed that these steps are being evaluated with the aim of both increasing the atmosphere of fear and ensuring that political debates remain Ankara-centered.

TWO CRITICAL TOPICS FOR EARLY ELECTION CLAIM

Nuray Babacan claimed that the ruling party will follow two fundamental developments during the summer months before a potential snap election decision.

According to Babacan, the first of these will be whether Özgür Özel and his team can maintain their political resistance and the course of their polling numbers in public opinion research.

The second topic was identified as political developments in the US. Babacan claimed that the ruling party will specifically monitor the political situation of US President Donald Trump and whether the support given to him will continue.

The article claimed that if the ruling party assesses that a picture favorable to itself has emerged on these two topics, the option of a snap election could return to the agenda.

"SUMMER MONTHS WILL BE CRITICAL" ASSESSMENT

Babacan concluded her article with the following assessment:

"The steps to be taken from September onwards will be very important. The snap election plan may not have been completely abandoned. Two developments will be observed throughout this summer. First, how resilient Özgür Özel and his team are and their polling numbers. Second, developments in the US. They will look at the situation of US President Donald Trump and how long his support will last. If the ruling party sees that these two are in its favor, then it may go to a snap election."