Election knot in AKP corridors: Critical calculation for Erdoğan's re-nomination

While the main opposition party, the CHP, reiterates its demand for an early election, the People's Alliance front is currently closing its doors to this call.

Meanwhile, what is being discussed in AKP corridors regarding an early election has leaked from behind the scenes.

Nefes columnist Nuray Babacan drew attention to the impasse between the election calendar and economic indicators within government circles. The article emphasizes that an early election is mandatory for AKP Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to run again, but that this plan has become risky because the economic program is delayed in delivering the expected results. It is stated that within the party, autumn 2027 or spring 2028 are emerging as potential dates for the election, but that a serious uncertainty exists if economic recovery cannot be achieved by these dates. It is also reported that some circles believe this dilemma cannot be overcome without radical changes in the fields of economy and politics.

The relevant section of Babacan's article titled "The government's election dilemma" is as follows:

"Early election plans, which are mandatory for President Tayyip Erdoğan to be able to run as a candidate, are problematic due to the economic picture, which shows little possibility of improvement within two years. The plans that would make them profitable are not very promising. As for the assessments made on this subject;

- Although there were shortcomings, the results of the implemented economic program were expected to be seen in 2027. Now, these targets have become difficult due to the effects of the war. An early election was foreseen following the relief that citizens would feel after inflation dropped to single digits.

- These plans will need to be revised. Whatever you call it, an early election or an election brought forward, it is a necessity for the AKP. If we want President Tayyip Erdoğan to be a candidate, we have no other choice. There is a squeeze between the calendar and the economy.

- You have two dates in front of you: either the autumn of 2027 or the spring of 2028. If the indicators that will win you the election do not catch up to either, there is no answer to what you will do.

- The alternative is the president not being able to run, which means an election on time. The conjuncture has created a dilemma for the government. The economic crisis, the pandemic, the March 19 IMM operation, and the war make it difficult to align economic targets with the early election calendar...

Some figures who look at the problem seriously claim that salvation could be possible if anti-democratic practices are abandoned, the 'Terror-Free Turkey Commission' report is implemented, and relations with the EU enter a new phase. For this, the government would need to turn 180 degrees from its current policies.

According to them, a holistic change in understanding, such as trust in the law, repairing the damaged sense of justice, and the elimination of anti-democratic practices, will be required. If citizens see this change in their lives, the psychology this creates will also positively affect the economy."