Erdoğan said 'This is my last election': Political scientist calls 'early election inevitable' and gives a date

As the country heads toward local elections, AKP Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's 'my last election' remark has changed the agenda.

This statement by Erdoğan has raised the question: 'Is this a new election maneuver?'

Evaluating Erdoğan's 'my last election' message, Minister of Justice Yılmaz Tunç stated that a path for Erdoğan to run again could be opened.

Minister Tunç used the following expressions in his statement;

"Our President reminded us of the rule in our Constitution during a meeting with young people. According to Article 101, one can be elected for 5 years and can be elected for 2 terms, but according to Article 116, if the Turkish Grand National Assembly decides to renew the elections in the 2nd term, with 360 deputies, if this decision is taken, the path for candidacy is opened again."

Following these consecutive statements, 'early election' claims began to be discussed.

Claiming that the reason for the early election being on the agenda is the developments in the economy, Political Scientist Assoc. Prof. Dr. Deniz Tansi stated that an early election is inevitable and provided a date. 

Speaking on Sözcü TV, Tansi said the following;

“An early election is inevitable! That is how I see it, but I have a criterion there; the election took place in May 2023, right? For a deputy to retire, they must have served as a deputy for at least 2 years, and that period expires in May 2025. However, such an early election could come to the agenda after May 2025. I don't think it will happen before that. There isn't much time left for that anyway; we are in March 2024, one year and 2 months later, the retirement requirement is already met.

‘THE ECONOMY WILL BE THE MAIN DETERMINANT HERE’

After that period is filled, whether it is the summer of 2025, the autumn, or 2026, it is not right to play an 'election toto' here, but the situation inevitably points to this. Now, this is how it is in Turkey; we have started talking about an early election at a time when it was said it would never happen.

By the government officials themselves, yes, even though extending the president's term seems to be a primary motivation here, I repeat: when things don't go well in the economy, there is inevitably a renewal of confidence at the ballot box. But of course, how will they renew this confidence, what will they do? I mean, the issue of retirees is there, the economic parameters are there... I mean, are they going to pull a rabbit out of a hat? I don't know that, but I don't believe that telling the voter 'you will tighten your belt for 4 years, and after 4 years everything will be perfect' has much of a karşılık (response) in politics.

The general logic of local elections is important, so if there is an interpretation that 'if CHP wins Istanbul and Ankara, the general picture won't change and the government will continue for 4 years,' this interpretation remains invalid. Because I think the economy will be completely decisive here in this process.”