Özgür Özel’s new party move in the world press: The balance has shifted

CHP Chairman Özgür Özel’s announcement that he will form a new party has become the subject of extensive commentary in the international press regarding the future of Turkish politics. The Financial Times, Reuters, the Associated Press (AP), and Deutsche Welle (DW) addressed the development within the framework of the opposition's position, the balance of power in parliament, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s potential election calculations.

The British Financial Times published its report under the headline, "Turkish opposition leader to form new party to challenge Erdoğan." The newspaper described Özel’s initiative as a "bold move that could reshape Turkish politics."

In its assessment, the FT highlighted the potential for the new formation to consolidate the fragmented opposition, mobilize voters dissatisfied with the government, and become a serious political rival to Erdoğan ahead of the 2028 elections. The report also noted that Özel could face political risks due to potential legal processes.

Citing recent public opinion polls, the newspaper wrote that if an election were held today, Özel’s as-yet-unnamed party would appear to be ahead of the AK Party. The report also included the assessment of Seren Selvin Korkmaz, Co-Director of the Istanbul Political Research Institute, who stated, "A breaking point is being experienced in Turkish political history... If it can meet the expectations of society, Özel's new party has significant potential. A major impasse for the opposition could turn into a major opportunity."

PARLIAMENTARY ARITHMETIC AND EARLY ELECTION CALCULATIONS

Reuters reported the development with the headline, "Turkey's opposition leader to form new party to challenge Erdoğan." The agency interpreted Özel’s decision as a political split that increases challenges for Erdoğan’s rivals and conveyed the expectation that the new party could take a significant number of deputies and voters with it from the CHP.

In its report, Reuters also included the cautious assessment of Gezici Research Chairman Murat Gezici regarding the short and medium term. Gezici stated, "This picture can only change if the new party finds a very strong response in society and transforms into the main center of the opposition. However, in the short and medium term, the political arithmetic is working in favor of Erdoğan and the AK Party."

In an analysis published by the agency on the same day, the discussion was addressed through the lens of Erdoğan’s re-election bid and the possibility of an early election. Reuters reminded readers that under the Constitution, for Erdoğan to be a candidate again, elections must be held before the normal calendar, which requires the support of 360 deputies in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM). Noting that a large portion of the CHP’s current 135 deputies are expected to move to Özel’s new party, the report assessed that the potential new parliamentary arithmetic could directly affect early election debates.

The Associated Press devoted significant space to Özel’s speech. The AP reported that Özel described the new party as "determined steps in the march to govern Turkey." The agency also wrote that a large number of CHP deputies are expected to join the new formation and that Özel said the new party "will be the main opposition party in parliament by a wide margin."

The AP report also referenced the success the CHP achieved in the 2024 local elections under Özel’s leadership and its strengthening of its position in major cities, particularly Istanbul and Ankara.

German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle reflected the development as a "historic rupture in the CHP." While highlighting the phrase from Özel’s speech, "we carry the hope of a new beginning," DW conveyed messages that the team resigning from the CHP did not bow to political pressure and has initiated a "new understanding of opposition" against Erdoğan.

DW’s report also included the assessment that a large number of CHP deputies are expected to join the new party, that the new formation could become the main opposition in parliament, and that following the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, Özel has become one of the figures organizing major street protests in Turkey.