Scenarios in the CHP ahead of the critical court case

In the CHP, the lawsuit filed for the annulment of the 38th Ordinary Congress, held on November 4-5, 2023, is expected to reach a verdict on October 24. Within the party, the most likely scenario is considered to be the court ruling in favor of the current administration and dismissing the case. In this event, Chairman Özgür Özel and his administration will continue in their roles, and the influence of the opposition wing within the party will diminish.

However, the court issuing a ruling of 'absolute nullity' and annulling the congress is also among the possibilities. In such a case, the return of former Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to the party leadership on an interim basis could be on the table. This scenario could lead to the mass resignation of the current administration and the division of the party. Whether the deputies who support Kılıçdaroğlu will remain in the party remains uncertain.

According to a report by Besti Karalar from Ekonomim, a third possibility is that the case will be postponed to another date. While this scenario is seen as less likely within the party, the possibility of the court appointing a trustee and assigning someone other than Kılıçdaroğlu is also being discussed.

There is a prevailing concern within the CHP that these developments could cause the party to lose its role as the main opposition and lead to a decrease in its number of seats in Parliament. The decision to be made on October 24 is of critical importance for the future of the party.