Striking S-400 analysis: 'It came at a heavy cost'
Although Turkey's purchase of S-400 air defense systems from Russia was initially seen as a display of national strength, it has over time brought serious economic and strategic costs to the country.
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Turkey's 2.5 billion dollar S-400 agreement with Russia in 2017 stood out as a decision made in an environment of distrust following the 2016 coup attempt and tensions with NATO allies. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned to Russia's S-400 system after finding the US conditions for the Patriot system unacceptable.
This decision led to Turkey's removal from the F-35 fighter jet program. Turkey had invested over 1.4 billion dollars in this program, and many Turkish defense companies were involved in the project. However, not only were the F-35s not delivered, but Turkey was also unable to receive a share from production, a situation that resulted in a 9 billion dollar loss for Turkey.
The S-400 systems arrived in Turkey in 2019 but were not actively used. Following a test firing in Sinop in 2020, the systems were deactivated. This situation caused the S-400s to turn into unused military hardware. Furthermore, the measures applied to Turkey by the US under CAATSA sanctions negatively affected the defense industry.
It was alleged that during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan in December 2025, Turkey brought up the issues of returning the S-400s and compensating for the payment. Although the Kremlin stated that this request was not voiced, this development indicates that Ankara is re-evaluating its strategy.
Washington states that if Turkey completely abandons the S-400s, it could return to the F-35 program. This step could revitalize relations and defense cooperation between Turkey and the US. However, this process is causing Turkey's strategic decisions in domestic and foreign policy to be questioned.