The Özel difference in the new party poll: What do CHP voters say?

The potential split and Özgür Özel's preparations for a new party, which came to the agenda following the "absolute nullity" decision in the CHP, have also been reflected in public opinion polls. According to the research shared by the IstanPol Institute in collaboration with Rawest Research and FES Turkey, the new party, which is stated to be established under Özel's leadership, ranked first with 35.6% support when undecided voters were distributed.

In the same scenario, while the AKP's vote share was measured at 27.8%, the CHP under the management of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remained at 5.1%. In the study, 30.3% of voters said they would vote for Özel's new party, while 19% stated that their decision depended on the circumstances.

Özgür Özel, in his statement on Sözcü TV, stated that work on the new party is ongoing and pointed to the end of July or the beginning of August for an official step. When asked about the party name and logo, Özel replied, "Many names are circulating. The nation decides; I haven't decided yet. The name and logo are being worked on. For now, let's call it the 'New Party'."

KEY FINDINGS IN THE POLL

According to the research, 73.2% of the public is aware of the absolute nullity process in the CHP. The strongest emotion the process created in voters was hopelessness at 43%. This was followed by anger at 21.6% and anxiety at 21.5%; the satisfaction rate remained at 14.2%.

45.5% of participants evaluated the return of the former CHP management to duty by court order as "interference in the party's internal affairs." This rate rose above 72% among CHP voters. The rate of those who found the decision legally correct was recorded at 22.4% among the general electorate.

The research showed that the perception of Özgür Özel and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has also diverged significantly. The rate of those who find Kılıçdaroğlu's attitude in the process negative reached 54.4% among the general electorate and 76.8% among CHP voters.

The rate of those who find Özel's attitude positive was 38.6% among the general electorate and 63.7% among CHP voters. According to the research, 25.6% of the general electorate and 47% of CHP voters stated that the developments increased their trust in Özel.

56.4% of participants shared the view that Kılıçdaroğlu should leave the party to Özgür Özel and his friends. This rate rose to 76.7% among CHP voters.

HOW DO CHP VOTERS VIEW LEAVING THE SIX ARROWS?

One of the most striking topics in the research was the attitude of CHP voters toward a possible new party. 59.4% of the general electorate and 74.9% of CHP voters stated that Özgür Özel and his friends should leave the CHP.

70.5% of CHP voters stated that Mansur Yavaş, and 71.8% stated that Ekrem İmamoğlu, should act together with Özgür Özel. The options of remaining neutral or standing with Kılıçdaroğlu found more limited support.

When the CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu's management and Özel's party faced each other on the ballot, only 11.9% of CHP voters said they would vote for the CHP logo in any case. 73.7% stated that they could risk leaving the Six Arrows to support Özel and his team.

A picture in favor of Özel also emerged in expectations regarding the success of the new party. 55.9% of participants said they thought the party to be established under Özel's leadership would be completely or partially successful. The rate of those who stated it would be unsuccessful was 24.2%.

In the scenario where Kılıçdaroğlu remains the chairman of the CHP, 73% of participants said they would not vote for the CHP. The rate of those who stated they would definitely vote for the CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership remained at 2.7%.

In voters' expectations regarding the new party, the emphasis on "not being a direct continuation of the CHP" stood out. 50.2% of the general electorate wanted the party to differentiate from the CHP, 38.9% wanted it to be a more inclusive center party, and 37.7% wanted the staff to consist mostly of new names.

When asked about voter tendencies before the absolute nullity, the CHP appeared neck-and-neck with 24.8% and the AKP with 24.5%; in the assumed table after the absolute nullity, Özel's new party was 6.5 points ahead of the AKP with 29.6%.

When undecided voters were distributed, Özel's new party rose to 35.6%. In the same table, the AKP was measured at 27.8%, the DEM Party at 8.7%, the MHP at 7.6%, the CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership at 5.1%, and the IYI Party at 4.7%.

Data on vote transitions revealed that support for Özel's new party was not limited to the CHP base. According to the research, 69% of those who voted for the CHP in 2023, 39% of IYI Party voters, 20% of DEM Party voters, 18% of MHP voters, and 9% of AKP voters stated that they could vote for the new party.