Trump’s praise for Erdoğan: Bahadır Selim Dilek explains the strategic background

İlkcan Kemer

Exclusive to 12punto, diplomatic correspondent Bahadır Selim Dilek delved into the depths of the relations between Trump and Erdoğan, examining the strategic messages behind the US President’s praise for President Erdoğan. Dilek emphasizes that these statements are part of an effort to shape the critical balance of power in the Middle East.United States President Donald Trump’s praise-filled statements regarding President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan shed light on the strategic relations between the two leaders in the Middle East. In his exclusive assessment for 12Punto, Bahadır Selim Dilek emphasized that behind Trump’s description of Erdoğan as “a very smart and tough guy” lies the goal of shaping America’s Middle East policies together with Turkey.

Dilek stated that Trump’s praise for Erdoğan actually aims to steer Turkey in line with America’s interests in the region. Expressing that these statements mean “steps to be taken with approval from America,” Dilek said, “For the continuation of Erdoğan’s rule, taking steps with America’s support has been a part of the AKP’s foreign policy for many years. The relations established with America form the foundation of the AKP’s policies.”

Pointing out that the relationship between Trump and Erdoğan is shaped through personal ties, Dilek said: “Trump acts in his relations not through values, but through personal bonds. He displays an approach like, ‘If you love me, do this; if you love me, stay there.’ This shows that America has assigned specific roles to Erdoğan and Turkey in the Middle East. Trump’s praise for Erdoğan is not just a diplomatic gesture, but a signal of regional strategies.”

ERDOĞAN AND TRUMP’S RELATIONSHIP: DIPLOMACY WITH “STREET TALK”

Stating how Trump’s praise-filled words for Erdoğan are shaped by “street talk,” Dilek expressed that Trump’s statements are far from diplomacy and are based more on one-on-one relations. “Trump acts not through values, but through personal relationships. The meaning of the words ‘He is a very smart guy, a tough guy, I like him, and he likes me’ shows that Trump acts through personal relations rather than values. Institutional relations have now been set aside. In other words, there is an approach like, ‘If you love me, do this; if you love me, stay there.’ These praise-filled words carry the message that America has assigned a role to Erdoğan and Turkey in the Middle East,” he said.

TRUMP’S GOAL THROUGH ERDOĞAN: SYRIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Viewing Trump’s praise for Erdoğan as a more strategic move regarding Turkey’s role in the Middle East, Dilek continued: “Trump wants Turkey to act as a gendarme in Syria, to support the garrison statehood there, to accept its legitimacy, and not to speak out against it. Speaking of Erdoğan with such praise, in a way, sends the message: ‘I will run Syria and the Middle East together with you, I will carry out my policies through you, comply with this.’ This is a situation consistent with Erdoğan’s approach to Syria and the Middle East. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that Trump made these praise-filled remarks specifically during his press conference with Netanyahu. There are two important actors in the Middle East; one is Israel, the other is Turkey. Israel is already a close ally of America, there is nothing to say to it. However, the Turkey issue is a bit more complex because Erdoğan has a specific policy toward the Middle East and clear steps in Syria. Therefore, Trump may have to give Turkey a more striking role. Additionally, it is expected that Turkey will show sensitivity regarding Israel’s security, not threaten its security, and not harm Israel’s interests in the region. Turkey seems to have already accepted this role. Hakan Fidan held long meetings in Washington, and things are proceeding in a way consistent with Trump’s policies.”

ERDOĞAN’S WHITE HOUSE PLAN

According to Dilek, Erdoğan’s White House visit, expected to take place in May, also has an image goal in Turkey’s domestic politics. “Erdoğan is in dire need of being photographed with Trump in some way. Once this photo is taken, it will be used extensively by the media both domestically and abroad. For Erdoğan, going to the White House is of critical importance. He will use this to create a world leader image domestically, and to give the image that we are strengthening our relations with America abroad. Also, he is in great need of this relationship for hot money. That is why going to the White House is important for Erdoğan,” said Dilek, underlining that the visit is of “critical importance” for Erdoğan.

Dilek concluded his words as follows: “There is also talk that the visit in question could be postponed due to events in Turkey. But I do not think there will be a postponement; perhaps some adjustments can be made to the dates, but there will be no cancellation or long-term postponement. I think this visit will take place one way or another. The messages to be given there are also important. It is difficult to predict what Trump will say, because his left and right are also unpredictable. If the visit takes place, it is hard to guess what Trump will say at the press conference. However, Erdoğan will still decide to take the risk and go because this visit will provide him with tremendous material.”

‘WHATEVER THE AKP DID, IT DID WITH AMERICA’S SUPPORT’

CHP Chairman Özgür Özel, in his statement regarding the claims in the press that “the US had prior knowledge of İmamoğlu’s arrest,” addressed President Erdoğan, saying, “Tell us by looking into our eyes whether you received permission from the US.” Expressing that these claims could be true, Dilek said: “Özgür Özel used expressions that the İmamoğlu operation was carried out after America’s permission was obtained. I think this is an accurate assessment. At such a critical stage, it would not be wrong to say that the steps to be taken for the continuation of Erdoğan’s rule were taken with approval from America. Because until today, whatever the AKP did in such matters, it did with America’s support. There is already a party that came to power with America’s support from the very beginning. Therefore, I do not see this as a remote possibility. We can say that the button was pressed after his conversation with Trump. In other words, it is clear that Trump approved of İmamoğlu being put in prison and Erdoğan continuing his rule. If you notice, the button was pressed for the operation in Istanbul immediately after Trump’s phone call.”

SCHRÖDINGER’S CAT AND ERDOĞAN’S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY

Comparing Erdoğan’s diplomatic strategy to the concept of Schrödinger’s cat, Dilek said, “Like Schrödinger’s cat, Erdoğan can exist in two opposite poles at the same time,” drawing attention to this strategy of Erdoğan, who both maintains his relations with the West and displays a national stance domestically.

“There was a concept called Schrödinger’s cat in philosophy. That is, a social experiment conducted on the possibility of a cat dying and living. Now, they have likened this a bit to Erdoğan in diplomacy. It is as follows: He both keeps his relations with Trump good and consolidates his base domestically with the image of a world leader, and in the exact opposite situation, he takes a stance against the world by displaying a domestic and national stance internally. In other words, he can consolidate his own base in two opposite issues and at two separate points. Actually, one should appreciate this aspect of Erdoğan. He can use it when Trump showers him with praise, and he can turn it to his own advantage when there is a reaction or criticism from America or Europe. In any case, like Schrödinger’s cat, he can exist in two opposite poles at the same time and provide himself with benefits. What is remarkable is this. The fact that he can lead his own mass so successfully should, in my opinion, be a lesson in social psychology books.