Was Murat Kurum able to connect with the AKP and MHP base? The notable YRP effect...
With only days left until the local elections, Turkey has turned its eyes to Istanbul. So, what are the advantages and disadvantages of the AKP's IMM candidate Murat Kurum? What will be the effect of the YRP on the election? Here are the details...
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Political Analyst Dr. İbrahim Uslu made assessments regarding Istanbul, which all of Turkey is waiting for with curiosity as the local elections are only days away.
Speaking to İpek Özbey from Sözcü, Uslu responded to the question, "What are Murat Kurum's advantages and disadvantages?" as follows:
"HE HAS 2 MAJOR HANDICAPS"
"Murat Kurum's only advantage was that the People's Alliance was going into the election together. This advantage was partially lost after the New Welfare Party (YRP) decided to enter the election with its own candidate. When he started the race, he had the 46 percent that the People's Alliance received in the last general election in his pocket, but with the New Welfare Party fielding a candidate, this figure dropped to the 40s. Because in all surveys, the New Welfare Party's vote share appears to be in the 5-6 percent range.
As for his disadvantages, he has two major handicaps. The first is that he is not a politician; he is seen more as a technocrat. However, both the AK Party and MHP bases like charismatic politicians. For this reason, it does not seem very possible for him to create admiration or an emotional bond within the bases of either party. His second handicap is that the total of his votes, which we could call guaranteed, has dropped to the 40s after the New Welfare Party. To increase his vote, he needs to get votes from the bases of other parties, but such a vote pool does not exist. Since his opponent appears at 45 percent and above in many surveys and there is no other pool from which he can get votes, he needs to push his opponent below 40 percent. This is not an easy goal."
"AKP WILL SHRINK FOR THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE ELECTION"
Uslu also responded to the question, "Is the AKP losing votes?" by saying, "Even if not by much, the erosion in the AK Party continues. In this election, it could not implement the crazy election economy practices like in the last two elections. Therefore, it cannot offer a reason to increase its votes. What is currently visible is that it will shrink for the fourth consecutive election since 2015."