Forecast for record electricity generation from nuclear energy

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its 'Electricity 2024' report. According to the report, production from renewable energy sources is increasing rapidly, and electricity generation from nuclear energy is also projected to reach a record level next year.

Global electricity demand growth slowed to 2.2 percent in 2023, partly due to a decline in consumption in advanced economies, while demand is expected to increase by 3.4 percent in the 2024-2026 period, driven by an improved global economic outlook and accelerating electrification.

ELECTRICITY TARGET FOR 2026

It is estimated that 85 percent of the growth in electricity demand will come from outside advanced economies, primarily from China, India, and countries in Southeast Asia.

All of the growth in global electricity demand over the next three years is projected to be met by low-emission sources, including renewable energy and nuclear. By 2026, it is calculated that approximately half of the world's electricity will be generated from clean energy sources.

Over the next three years, electricity generation from low-emission sources is expected to double the average annual growth rate seen in the 2018-2023 period, and by 2025, the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation is projected to surpass coal.

Driven by rapid growth in solar energy, the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation, which was 30 percent in 2023, is expected to rise to 37 percent in 2026.

EXPECTATION OF A DECLINE IN EMISSIONS

According to the IEA, with the share of fossil fuels in global electricity generation falling below 60 percent, this will be the first time this threshold has been crossed in the last 50 years.

With the acceleration of electricity generation from renewable energy and nuclear, a significant decline in emissions from the electricity sector is expected.

Global emissions from the electricity sector are calculated to decrease by 2.4 percent this year, and this decline is expected to continue in 2025 and 2026, albeit at a lower level.

Data centers, artificial intelligence, and crypto could consume as much electricity as Japan

According to IEA calculations, electricity consumption from data centers, artificial intelligence, and the cryptocurrency sector has the potential to double by 2026.

While data centers are seen as a driving force for electricity demand growth in many regions, it is estimated that the global electricity consumption of these centers was 460 terawatt-hours in 2022.

This consumption is estimated to exceed one thousand terawatt-hours by 2026. This amount is roughly equivalent to Japan's electricity consumption.

To control the increase in energy consumption by data centers, updated regulations and technological improvements, including efficiency, are needed.

"PROMISING TRENDS"

Commenting on the report, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that the electricity sector currently causes more carbon emissions than any other sector in the global economy.

Expressing that it is encouraging that renewable energy and nuclear will meet all the growth in global electricity demand over the next three years through steady growth, Birol said, "This is largely thanks to the massive momentum behind renewable energy. Solar power is becoming increasingly cheap, and the comeback of nuclear energy, whose production will reach a historic peak by 2025, is also supporting this momentum. While more and faster progress is needed, these are very promising trends."

Birol noted that electricity consumption is a fundamental indicator of economic development for every country and that it is concerning that per capita electricity consumption in Africa has remained stagnant for over 30 years.

Emphasizing that access to reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy is essential for African countries to achieve their economic and climate goals, Birol stated, "The international community must work with African governments to ensure the urgent progress needed."