The world has exceeded the dangerous level, if only for a day
Even if it was only for a single day, exceeding the critical level signals that worse days are ahead.
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Global temperatures briefly surpassed a point that climate scientists have long feared late last week. Preliminary data shows that for the first time in recorded history, the average global temperature exceeded the critical threshold of 2°C above pre-industrial levels last Friday.
According to details reported by Chip, Dr. Sam Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, stated in a post on X: “The @CopernicusECMWF ERA5 global temperature for 17 November was 1.17°C above the 1991-2020 average; this is the warmest on record.” Dr. Burgess added that preliminary data for Saturday, November 18, showed global average temperatures were 2.06°C above pre-industrial levels: “Our best estimate is that this was the first day when global temperature was 2°C above the 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) level, at 2.06°C.”
WE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED
There is ample evidence that if the world remains consistently 2°C above pre-industrial levels, it will significantly affect the environment and those living on the planet (including us).
In a world that is 2°C warmer, it is almost certain that more than 99 percent of coral reefs will face an end. Furthermore, compared to just 1.5°C of warming, we are likely to see significantly greater declines in insects, plants by 16 percent, and vertebrates by 8 percent. This change could also push several hundred million people into climate-related poverty.
The 2°C threshold was one of the fundamental principles of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, in which international leaders hoped to keep global warming “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and limit it to just 1.5°C.
ONLY ONE DAY, BUT IT WILL INCREASE IF IT CONTINUES THIS WAY
However, it is worth noting that this data is currently only preliminary and the global average temperature threshold was exceeded for only one day. To fully measure the impact of climate change, we need to examine years, decades, and long-term trends, not rare, odd days. Nevertheless, some see these record figures as an important reference point, and we must not forget that this breach is not a one-time occurrence.
We have witnessed record-breaking temperatures repeatedly this year. The hottest day in the world since records began was seen on July 3, 2023, but temperatures on July 4, which were nearly 1°C above the 1979-2000 average, quickly surpassed that record.
These single days where limits are exceeded are becoming part of a larger trend. Scientists predict that 2023 will likely end with the highest global surface temperatures in recorded history. Furthermore, if the current trajectory is taken into account, it is highly likely that we will see record-breaking temperatures in 2024 as well.
Climate scientists and activists often speak of “keeping the 1.5°C target alive” and express hope that the world can take sufficient measures to stay well below the 2°C threshold. While the high global temperatures this weekend do not mean that this target has been missed, they should serve as a worrying wake-up call regarding the measures that need to be taken.