Crisis in flight routes: Rising conflicts increase costs in the aviation sector

Recent escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Asia have led many countries to restrict their airspace. Especially following the attacks on the Israel-Iran line, some countries around the Persian Gulf temporarily closed their airspace. This development caused dozens of flights by leading airlines to be either canceled or diverted to alternative routes.

Last May, a brief military tension between India and Pakistan caused both countries to close their airspace to rival airlines. In addition to these, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian airspace was closed to Western airlines, and new routes had to be drawn, especially for long-haul flights.

An increasing number of airlines are trying to manage these challenges brought about by suddenly changing conflicts and wars. Every change in routes significantly affects profitability calculations and operational ease.

Some tragic events in the previous period showed how serious this risk could be. Following the downing of a Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukrainian skies in 2014, a similar incident occurred last December when an Azerbaijan Airlines plane was shot down in Russian airspace. Such events are leading to new measures for both passenger and crew safety.

According to the latest report by Verisk Maplecroft, more than 4.5 percent of the world's land surface is still affected by armed conflict, and this rate is constantly increasing.

REORGANIZATION OF ROUTES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The civil aviation sector is responsible for ensuring the safe transport of more than 100 thousand flights and millions of passengers every day. However, crises erupting on a global scale are further disrupting this balance every day. Especially in the Middle East, airlines have had to review their routes once again following the recent attacks between Iran and Israel.

Qatar Airways had to change more than 90 of its flights following Iran's attack on the US base in Qatar, and as a result, there was a significant disruption in the travel plans of more than 20 thousand passengers. Similarly, Qantas's Perth-Paris flight changed its route for security reasons and returned to Australia, remaining in the air for a total of 15 hours.

Although some airlines have begun to return to their old routes, companies remain on alert against the possibility of a new crisis at any moment. While short-term problems can be solved quickly, long-term conflicts lead to much greater economic consequences.

CLOSED AIRSPACE SHAKES THE AIRLINE ECONOMY

When Russia completely closed its airspace to Western airlines following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, most flights from the US and Europe to Asia became both longer and more expensive.

According to information provided by Professor Andreas Schäfer of the UCL Energy Institute, an additional hour of flight for large passenger aircraft means an additional cost of approximately 10 thousand dollars. Fuel, personnel, and maintenance costs make up the majority of this expense. For the aviation sector, where demand is limited and prices are determined by competition, these additional costs can seriously threaten the profitability of companies.

Some airlines have had to turn to connecting routes instead of direct flights. In addition, unprofitable routes were canceled and passenger levels were reduced on some flights. According to Professor Ahmed Abdelghany, as the duration of airspace closures extends, the pressure on the sector grows even more, and companies may have to develop entirely new business models.

Finnish airline Finnair had served as a bridge for flights between Europe and Asia for years. However, the closure of Russian airspace led to the end of this strategy. Currently, the duration of Finnair's Asian flights has increased by up to 40 percent. Chinese airlines gain a competitive advantage because they can still use Russian airspace. While flights from Helsinki to Shanghai take more than 12 hours on Finnair, this duration can remain under 9 hours for China-based companies.

Similarly, US airlines have also suffered. United Airlines' previous non-stop flights from India to the US have undergone route changes with the current crises, and flight times have increased significantly. With an advantage that ended in April, Air India was still using Russian airspace; however, after the India-Pakistan tension, Indian airlines switched to longer and more circuitous routes for North American flights. Pakistani airspace remains closed to Indian airlines.

As the duration of air travel increases, the sector is trying to cope with rising security and financial risks. It is predicted that there will be permanent changes in the airline sector in the coming period.