Assoc. Prof. Dr. Alper Yılmaz writes: German elections: winners, losers...

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As the powerhouse of the EU, the general elections in Germany concerned not only Germany but all of Europe, and even the United States and the future of transatlantic relations, which have recently been attempting to intervene in the elections. The 'Traffic Light coalition' formed between the SPD (Social Democratic Party), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP), which had been in power since the 2021 elections, had shown cracks toward the end of 2024, leading to the decision for early elections in Germany following the resignation of Free Democratic Party Finance Minister Lindner.

According to the election results, the conservative Christian Union parties (CDU/CSU) took first place with 28.5% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party became the second-largest party with 21% of the vote. These results showed that political balances in Germany have shifted and the far-right is on the rise. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Alper Yılmaz evaluated the picture that emerged after the elections and possible coalition scenarios for 12punto.

WHAT IS THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AFTER THE RESULTS?

Issues such as preventing illegal migration, reducing the tax burden, and strengthening relations with Turkey allowed the CDU to find resonance with voters. Yılmaz drew attention to the promises made by CDU leader Friedrich Merz regarding migration, the economy, and foreign policy.

Interpreting the election results, Yılmaz stated the following:

''According to the initial results of the early elections held as of February 23, Angela Merkel's former party, the conservative Christian Union parties (CDU/CSU), won the election by a wide margin with a rate of 28.5% (208 seats). This rate remained slightly below the pre-election polls, as the polls showed the CDU/CSU above 30%. However, compared to the 2021 elections, the CDU/CSU increased its vote share by 4.5%.

CDU leader and expected new chancellor of the country, Friedrich Merz, who is a lawyer by profession, said he wanted to form a coalition government without wasting any time. So, what were the CDU's promises that resonated with voters? First of all, the issue of “Migration” was used as a serious election propaganda in this process. In Germany, which is one of Europe's most important migration destinations, the CDU frequently emphasized issues such as tightening border controls to prevent illegal migration and keeping criminals who have been ordered to be deported in custody. Reducing the tax burden on citizens and companies economically and increasing the competitiveness of the German economy, which has been losing ground recently, were brought to the agenda. In foreign policy, they had promises such as continuing to support Ukraine and Israel and strengthening political and economic relations with Turkey.

The second party to receive the most votes in the elections was the AfD (Alternative for Germany), which is considered a far-right and by some circles a Neo-Nazi party, with 21%, and it won 152 seats. The AfD, which took its place among the parties that made the biggest leap in German political history by increasing its vote share by 10% compared to the 2021 elections, is in the position of a party that passionately advocates for the complete closure of German borders against illegal migration and the return of existing foreign-origin people to the countries they came from. AfD politicians, especially party co-chair Alice Weidel, had harsh rhetoric, especially regarding illegal immigrants, to the effect of “shoot with weapons if necessary, send them away by force.”

The other parties that won seats are, respectively; SPD 16.5%, Greens 11.6%, Die Linke (Left Party) 8.7%. Olaf Scholz's inability to assert his weight in foreign policy and his passive stance, the arms support given to Ukraine, the worsening economic conditions in the country, and many other reasons damaged the SPD's trust in the eyes of society. Let's open a separate parenthesis for Die Linke here. The party led by Heidi Reichinnek received more votes than the polls and caused a big surprise. They managed to get votes from Muslim-origin immigrants here, especially with their embracing rhetoric toward Muslims in Gaza and their support for the anti-Israel protests of Palestinians in Germany. They also emphasized issues such as high rents, low wages, and the cost of living. They went door to door and listened to the problems of the voters face to face. Thus, it increased its vote by 4% compared to the 2021 elections. The Free Democrats and BSW (Sara Wagenknecht) could not pass the 5% election threshold.''

WHAT WILL THE LIKELY COALITION LOOK LIKE?

Yılmaz reported that the AfD was excluded by other parties due to its racist rhetoric. Stating that a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is the strongest possibility, Yılmaz emphasized that the total vote share of these two parties is sufficient for a coalition.

Noting that there is no possibility of the AfD entering the ruling coalition, Yılmaz expressed the following:

''If we look at the possible coalition probability; although the AfD is the second party that won the most seats, all parties have stated in no uncertain terms that they will not form a coalition with the AfD due to its racist rhetoric. Therefore, the AfD is currently out of the system. The CSU, from the Union parties, does not want the Green Party due to disagreements. In this case, unless a big surprise occurs, a coalition government to be formed by the Union parties and the Social Democratic Party is expected. Because the vote share received by these two parties exceeds the figure of 316, which is the required number for a coalition. In other words, it is near that we will see a Germany where center-right and center-left parties form a coalition in the new period.''

THE RAPID RISE OF THE AfD

Yılmaz also touched upon the factors that triggered the rise of the AfD. Merkel's 'Open Door Policy' in 2016 and the rising far-right populism across Europe were effective in the strengthening of the AfD.

Suggesting that there is a high probability of the AfD coming to power in the next elections, Yılmaz made the following assessment:

''The AfD is defined by wide circles in Germany as “a racist party that defends values that overlap with Nazi Germany, believes in the superiority of the white German race, and develops hate speech especially against Muslim immigrants.” It is also in cooperation with organizations such as PEGIDA (Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West), which carries Islamophobic elements. There are, of course, some triggering factors in the AfD reaching this point. Especially Merkel's “Open Door Policy” in 2016 and opening her borders to nearly 1 million Syrians is an important turning point in the strengthening of the AfD from that day to this. Because since this date, the AfD has been arguing that Germany is heavily exposed to illegal migration, that crime rates are increasing day by day due to immigrants, that unemployment is escalating, and that Muslim-origin immigrants threaten the cultural values of the West. Another factor is the far-right and rising racism that has been gaining strength across Europe for a long time. The power of Meloni in Italy and Orban in Hungary, Le Pen increasing her vote rates in France, and the borders of Eastern Europe being surrounded by barbed wire are manifestations of these. The fact that far-right leaders and populism have gained so much momentum across Europe has also directed the AfD's migration policies, and these policies have been seriously accepted by voters.

One of the most important dynamics that has made the AfD strong recently is the statements of Trump and Elon Musk supporting the AfD. Elon Musk had spoken to the effect that “Only the AfD can save Germany.” In fact, recently, US Vice President James Vance met not with Chancellor Scholz but with Alice Weidel at the Munich Conference and said that he supported her.

Alice Weidel used the concept of “remigration” regarding the mass return or deportation of immigrants before the elections. So much so that in the election campaigns, the AfD even sent one-way tickets to the homes of Muslim immigrants living here, almost intimidating them. When we think of all these, even if not in these elections, it seems like a very high probability that the AfD will come to power in the next elections. This situation will trigger a process in which racism in Germany reaches its peak in the eyes of society, internal conflicts begin between local and foreign peoples, and the life and property security of immigrants is threatened. This atmosphere of chaos will undoubtedly cause both Germany and Europe to weaken in political, economic, and social terms.''

WHAT AWAITS TURKISH-ORIGIN IMMIGRANTS?

The restrictions that the CDU may bring regarding dual citizenship and the rise of the AfD have created uncertainty for those of Turkish origin. According to Yılmaz, if the AfD comes to power, the life and property security of immigrants could be threatened.

Arguing that in the future, in addition to policies toward immigrants, German citizens of Turkish origin could also be targeted, Yılmaz added the following:

''Many of the Turkish-origin people living in Germany are worried. The short-term concern is this: With the arrival of the CDU, the “abolition of dual citizenship” given to them during the SPD period is in question, that is, an imposition such as “you will either be a German citizen or a Turkish citizen” may come. However, the Turks here want to have both citizenships and participate in the political process, especially within the framework of the constitutional ground. In addition, the CDU had said in its pre-election promises that border controls would be tightened, which creates anxiety for Turks who want to bring their relatives or loved ones from Turkey to Germany.

In the long term, the high probability of a racist party like the AfD coming to power in the next elections creates great anxiety for Turks who are already integrated here, have established their businesses, and brought their families. Because the fear of “we could be sent away from here in 4 years, we could lose everything we have built with great devotion and difficulty for years” has already begun to prevail. Already, in the statement she made after the election, Alice Weidel said, “We will win the next elections,” and started making future plans, giving the message that they were not the losing side in the election, but the winning side. All this situation brings with it a difficult process for Turks who are currently settled in Germany and who plan to come to Germany.''