Egypt's non-participation in the Mecca pact debated in Cairo: Balancing policy and regional risks come to the fore

The fact that Egypt was not included in the joint defense agreement signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan in Mecca on August 7 has become a subject of debate in the Arab press and diplomatic circles. The signatories of the agreement, referred to as the “Mecca pact,” state that the text does not target any country and is open to others.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar emphasized that the agreement is a form of defense cooperation that does not target anyone. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also described Egypt as a “natural partner” of the three signatory countries in a statement to Anadolu Agency and said it could be included in the agreement in the future.

The fact that Fidan is set to hold talks in Egypt on August 13-14 has made the discussions regarding Cairo's stance even more visible. However, assessments in the Arab press reveal that Egypt's distant approach to the agreement is seen not merely as a technical defense preference, but as being linked to a broader foreign policy calculation.

CAIRO'S RESERVATIONS

According to BBC Monitoring, the prevailing view in Egyptian press commentary is that Cairo is avoiding taking a hasty step. Emadeddin Hussein, editor of the Al-Shorouk newspaper, stated that Egypt had been aware of the agreement for months and that “all options” were on the table. According to Hussein, Cairo is acting cautiously in an environment where parties to regional conflicts want to draw Egypt and the region into a wider equation.

The independent digital media outlet Mada Masr claimed that Egypt had been invited to the agreement but did not accept. A Pakistani source quoted in the report stated that Cairo evaluates the agreement not only as defense cooperation but also as a “political alignment.”

According to assessments by Arab diplomats, the delicate balance created by relations with Turkey, Greece, and the Republic of Cyprus is also influential in Egypt's stance. In the same context, it is stated that Cairo's increasing economic cooperation with India is one of the issues that makes it difficult to remain distant from the defense agreement with Pakistan.

THE YEMEN AND IRAN FACTOR

The topics of Yemen and Iran also stand out in comments regarding Egypt's decision. Saudi Arabia leads the coalition that has intervened militarily in favor of the Yemeni government against the Iran-backed Houthis. For this reason, it is assessed that Cairo is taking into account the possibility that the pact could drag it into a sharper confrontation with Iran or actors in Yemen.

Speaking to the Russian channel RT Arabic, military expert Mohamed al-Shahawi described Egypt's decision not to participate as “conscious and calculated.” Al-Shahawi also pointed to Cairo's mediation initiatives aimed at preventing the expansion of conflicts in the region.

Military expert Osama Mahmoud Kabeer, whose views were featured in the Saudi-based Al-Arabiya, also said that Cairo's attitude reflects its national security concerns and its desire to prevent the growth of regional conflict.

However, some commentators are of the opinion that Egypt not signing in the first phase does not mean it has closed the door completely. Journalist Mohamed Shahud, who lives in the US, argued that Egypt's immediate non-inclusion in the agreement should not be interpreted as it not joining in the future.

Former Egyptian diplomat Masoum Marzouk, recalling that Cairo held a meeting with the pact countries on June 21, stated that Egypt remaining outside the agreement raises “questions that require clear answers.” These assessments show that the Mecca pact is being closely watched not only among the signatory countries but also in terms of the balance of power in the region.