Elections in Germany: The far-right's claim and political crisis... Will there be a surprise at the ballot box?

Suat TEKİN - 12punto.com.tr

German voters will head to the polls tomorrow for a general election that could have a major impact on the country's future. According to polls conducted so far, the CDU/CSU, the party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, is expected to emerge victorious. Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU's chancellor candidate, participated in a debate program for chancellor candidates early last week and scolded Alice Weidel, the candidate for the far-right party AfD, over her stance against Ukraine. Merz's attitude led to interpretations that the CDU will not cooperate with the AfD in the coming period. Political parties in Germany are implementing a 'firewall' (Brandmauer) policy against the AfD. This stance was developed to ensure that no political party develops relations with the far-right party.

According to polls, the AfD could emerge from the ballot box as the second-largest party after the CDU/CSU. The potential success of the AfD could create 'transformative' effects on German politics. Political experts have suggested that the AfD, which has high support in the former East Germany regions, could receive support from western states this time as well. According to commentaries in the German media, interest in the far-right has increased, especially among young people. These developments have revealed that the political situation in Germany is changing. We spoke with writer Osman Çutsay about the future of German politics and who might be most affected by the elections in Europe.

WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY?

Çutsay stated that according to polls, more than 30 percent of voters have still not decided which party to support, despite there being only a few days left until the election. Pointing out that this situation could trigger a surprise in the elections, Çutsay argued that in any case, the German right will become the 'dominant' force after the elections.

Stating that research conducted in Germany regarding the elections shows the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in the lead, Çutsay used the following expressions:

''The latest public opinion polls show that the Christian Democrats (CDU and CSU) will emerge first from the ballot box with around 30 percent of the vote. In second place is the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which we can call “far-right” and which also includes fascist channels within its structure. It is in the 20-22 percent band. In third place, usually by a small margin, the majority of tables suggest the Social Democrats (SPD) will emerge, but the Green Party could also get ahead of the SPD. The votes of these two parties are in the 14-16 percent band and they are competing. As for the Left Party (Die Linke), the poll results suggesting it would not be able to enter parliament after the departure of the Sahra Wagenknecht team (BSW) have, strangely, changed in the last few weeks. Or rather, they were changed. Now, data is piling up in the media suggesting that the Left Party could reach 6 percent, while the BSW could remain below the 5 percent threshold... It is claimed that young people voting for the first time are especially giving wings to the Left Party.

The liberal right-wing Free Democratic Party (FDP) currently appears to be below the threshold. But the system might somehow get it out of the ballot box.

Evaluating the situation of German left-wing parties, Çutsay reported that a front has been formed against the newly established Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). According to Çutsay, mainstream media and political institutions have tried to create a perception that the left-wing party BSW is just as dangerous as the far-right AfD.''

Çutsay said that the ruling party SPD and its former partner, the Greens, have undergone a transformation due to their approaches to foreign policy, and noted the following:

''The SPD and the Greens don't really have much of a relationship with the left anymore, and they don't have such a claim anyway. Both are war parties. They are adding fuel to the fire in Ukraine and consider inciting 'Russian hatred' and fear of Russia as politics. Meanwhile, they have ceased to be mass parties. The SPD, which once reached 44 percent, would be happy today if it reached 15 percent.''

CDU/CSU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz

Stating that the 5 percent election threshold in Germany directly affects the parliamentary arithmetic, Çutsay explained the support the mainstream media gives to its 'former enemy', the Left Party (Die Linke), as follows:

''The mainstream media and mainstream politics are giving great support to the Left Party, which they once declared their 'arch-enemy'—which reached 12 percent during the Oskar Lafontaine era and could emerge as the first party in the eastern states—so that it does not fall below the threshold. But the current arch-enemy seems to have doubled: the AfD and the BSW, which they insist on attaching to it... However, the reality is not like that: In Germany, center politics and the pro-government/crony/funded media are trying to prepare for the new era by declaring two left-wing social democrats like Oskar Lafontaine and Sahra Wagenknecht as bogeymen.''

Çutsay expressed the following regarding the attitude of center politics and the media toward the left:

''Politics and the media have officially taken a stance. It is as follows: A defense line seems to have been established against the BSW, which insists on calling for urgent peace, support for the incomes of the working classes and retirees, and public-weighted investments against deindustrialization, and which rejects credits opened for militarism as the election approaches. The Left Party has not changed its negative stance against Russia due to the Ukraine conflicts. It has not developed an effective opposition against Berlin sending weapons to Ukraine either. It has remained on the channel that declares Putin the arch-enemy and chief culprit.

There is no party in parliament in Germany that is problematic with the system and looking for a transcendent policy. We can include the BSW, which we can call left-wing social democratic, in this as well.''

THE SITUATION OF GERMAN LEFT-WING PARTIES

Çutsay argued that German politics is trapped in a kind of dead end. According to Çutsay, mainstream political institutions have failed to produce solutions to the existing problems in Germany. On the other hand, reporting that fascism continues to spread in Europe, Çutsay explained that this situation is an indicator that a major crisis is being experienced.

Expressing that one reason why the night of February 23 is open to many surprises is the political crisis being experienced, Çutsay noted the following:

''In reasonable media and politics, that is, in system-internal institutions, we do not see a reaction or a policy that we can call socialist regarding the magnitude of the approaching catastrophe. Even their own members don't take a few 'socialist sects' seriously. For example, the German Communist Party (DKP), the current representative of a very serious tradition, participated in the election and called for casting invalid votes. They are all going through a bath of desperation...

Sovereign politics seems to have fallen into the delusion that it can get out of the chaos it is in through ballot box games. But we see that Europe is rapidly drifting toward a fascistic right. A fascist party is in power in Italy. France, the Netherlands, Belgium, even the Northern European countries, meanwhile Austria, and of course Hungary... The footprints of the “far-right” are now too distinct to be erased in these places. This can be accepted as a sign that a major crisis is being passed through.

Let us also add this. If the FDP cannot pass the threshold, there is also fear in the right-wing media that a kind of 'popular front government' could be established by the SPD-Greens-Left Party-BSW. Although nothing for the benefit of the people would come out of such a combination, and international peace would not gain stability this way. But there is no shortage of pro-government/crony/funded newspapers and television programs making such interpretations.''

''THERE WILL BE A BIG SHOCK IN EUROPE''

Çutsay stated that the far-right AfD emerging 2nd in the elections seems certain according to the polls. Arguing that the strengthening of the AfD will affect other countries in Europe due to the AfD's potential success, Çutsay also pointed out that the party does not consist only of fascist masses at the fringes.

Making evaluations about the structure of the mass that makes up the AfD, Çutsay added the following to his words:

''It seems almost certain that it will emerge as the second party. At least it appears in the 21-22 percent band in all public opinion polls before the election. This is a kind of right-wing mass party that also has a fascist or fascistic channel within it.

In my opinion, the AfD resembles our Good Party (İyi Parti). But think of it as having a lot of Ümit Özdağs and even MHP members inside. It is a mass party now. We cannot say there is a major programmatic difference between it and the Christian Democrats (CDU and CSU). They are all neoliberal. It is actually a kind of Trump Party. The only important difference between it and classical right-wing parties is that it wants the war in Ukraine to be ended immediately and calls for taking the necessary measures so that industrial investments fleeing abroad due to the explosion in energy inputs remain in the country. The reason it wants peace is the crisis in German industry: It knows that without cheap energy, Germany will deindustrialize. Of course, it needs a mass. Its only topic is immigrants, or rather irregular immigrants. Especially its sharp stance on Muslim refugees has enabled it to create a mass of the poor. But it is a right-wing party in every sense and even very open to fascistic tendencies. Just like the Good Party in our country and the people and institutions we can call its 'satellites'...

The strengthening of the AfD will be a big shock not only in Germany but also in Europe. If Germany, the largest country in Europe which is already shifting further to the right every day, the hegemonic 'geoeconomic power' of the old continent, is governed by a coalition in which the far-right participates, a lot will change. We know that big capital will not be very happy about this. No export-oriented economy likes uncontrolled nationalist closures at home. But it might be forced to.''

A poster from an anti-AfD rally: Stop the AfD

'GERMANY IS RAPIDLY HEADING TOWARD A DEAD END'

Germany is known as one of the European countries with the highest immigrant population. The rising far-right in the country could lead to the emergence of not only a political but also a sociological crisis in the long run.

Çutsay stated that the Turkish population living in Germany could be deeply affected by the approaching uncertain period, and made the following evaluations:

''Germany's 'Russophobic' (anti-Russian) years, its attitude during the vaccination period, and some recent anti-immigrant outbursts that are reactive enough to disturb those of Muslim origin have not improved its record on fundamental rights and freedoms. There is intense impoverishment, and as a result, some nationalist signs have created a mass. Deindustrialization has become a tangible, visible danger. On such a stage, it would be surprising if the far-right, or even fascism, did not gain strength. This means a crisis for a country where approximately 6 million Muslims live, and about 4 million of them have connections to Turkey.

Germany is rapidly heading toward a more difficult-to-manage, or even unmanageable, dead end. We cannot think that the EU or Europe is presenting a different image on this matter.

If we understand fundamental rights and freedoms by democracy, which is not a concept I am close to at all, difficult times await them. Let me be very clear: We are entering a time when, in a regime praised as European democracy, the working classes and intellectual layers will be crushed more ruthlessly, and those of immigrant origin will be pushed and shoved. Difficult times await those who expect a remedy from German democracy. Let me just say this much and close the subject to discuss another time: The vaccination scandal, the Ukraine war, and the hostility toward poor immigrants, especially Muslims, are views that the AfD and rising fascism actually stem from elsewhere, and they have long been demonized in the media and politics. The state of the democratic media is a complete disgrace. The existence of some Turkish 'intellectuals' who are very democratic and profit from this disgrace creates a very painful scene.''

WILL THE CDU/CSU AND AfD COOPERATE?

It is known that one of the most frequently voiced concerns in Germany is that the center-right CDU/CSU will cooperate with the far-right AfD in the future. According to a study conducted in 2021, more than 50 percent of Germans think that the AfD will be a ruling party or in power in the 2030s.

Çutsay stated that the AfD could be a coalition partner at some point, even if not immediately, and noted the following:

''Let's look at Austria. Or Italy, the Netherlands. Even France. Germany is the most important country in Europe. It has the most important and strongest capital. The largest population is also in this country. Therefore, a government with the AfD will shake the foundations of Europe. France and Austria are already pressing from two sides, and Italy is pressing from below for a new right-wing government experiment...

I am one of those who think that a coalition could be possible after a while. Over time, both the Christian Democrats and some managers within the AfD could soften their edges, and by “taking some heads,” they could approach each other. Warnings that the conditions of the Weimar Republic are coming true have begun to multiply.

Attention! We have to take seriously those who think that Europe, including Turkey, is moving toward pre-1914 conditions. There is no socialist balancing element in the world. In periods when such alternatives do not exist, capital sets out for ruthless deeds and discoveries that will balance and boost falling profit rates. They are all determined to militarize the European and German economy. War will definitely come out of this. This will cost the European peoples very dearly.

Again: Yes, after quite a few fractures, it is possible for this organization, which gives the profile of an 'MHP-Ümit Özdağ-reinforced Good Party' like the AfD, to become a partner in power through a coalition.

Here, the role of the left-liberal herd in the Left Party and the swamp they created is very important... We did not observe a similar reaction to the Oskar Lafontaine-Sahra Wagenknecht reaction in Turkey. Therefore, there is a great lack of knowledge and a great lack of political morality-culture in the 'social democracy' of Turkey. But that is another story...''

HOW WILL RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND GERMANY BE SHAPED?

Çutsay drew attention to the possibility of re-establishing relations between Turkey and Germany after the elections. Noting that the two countries are connected in many areas from the economy to social relations, Çutsay also emphasized the importance of the Turkish voter who will cast a ballot.

Claiming that Germany is the most important country for Turkey, Çutsay spoke as follows:

''Let us know this fact now: Germany is the most important country in the outside world for Turkey within the world system. It is the most important state. In my opinion, it is even more important than the USA, and this has been the case since the mid-1970s, starting from within NATO. Turkey is an economy and state under Germany's mandate. Therefore, political fluctuations in Berlin will suddenly hit Ankara and Turkish politics and society as well. Germany has an economy that owns the Turkish economy. Turkey is very intertwined with Germany in technological, political, and demographic terms.

Let's not think of this power only as Germany. If we combine it with Austria, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and even the France-Italy line in its shadow and even under its guidance, it will be better understood what I mean by Germany's power. This is also very important: According to data from some large capital institutions in Germany, more than 4 million people of Turkish origin live there. Official statistics show the figure of 3 million. On Sunday, well over 1 million such voters will cast their votes. If the relations between the economies, societies, and cultures of the two countries are so intricate, how can we expect this not to be reflected in the ballot box?

What about the refugee camps? We can transition to an equation that includes millions of Arab, Afghan, Persian, etc., refugees kept in Turkey so they don't come to Germany. Hasn't Turkey been turned into a kind of refugee collection camp for Germany and Austria, and a little bit for the Netherlands, Italy, and Switzerland? Millions of people want to pass from Turkey to Europe, and Turkey, in exchange for billions of euros, primarily from Berlin, does not let these people out of its borders. With whom does such an intertwining exist?

Okay, we don't expect an urgent transformation in Germany-Turkey relations immediately after February 23. But we also don't know how this pressure will be held over time. Which valves might be activated? We don't know. But there is a very intense potential for conflict out there.''

Writer Osman Çutsay