How will the escalating tension between Israel and Hezbollah end? 'Israel wants to expand the war'

Suat TEKİN - 12punto.com.tr

Israel's attack on Hezbollah members in Lebanon yesterday (September 17) has resonated around the world. The attack, carried out by simultaneously detonating explosives previously placed in pagers, has also brought up the possibility of Lebanon and Israel starting a potential ground war.

While the Israeli army is deploying thousands of its soldiers to the Lebanese border, Lebanese Hezbollah has made statements indicating that they will 'take revenge.' These events have raised many questions, from the possibility of a war breaking out between Israel and Lebanon to what kind of military and political developments may occur in the near future for both countries.

Experienced journalist, researcher, author, and Marmara University faculty member Prof. Dr. Barış Doster commented on the escalating tension between Lebanon and Israel for 12punto.

'POINTS TO ISRAEL'S DESIRE TO EXPAND THE WAR'

Israel attempted to assassinate thousands of people simultaneously using a method never seen before. Evaluating the attack that took place yesterday, Doster makes the following comment:

'The attack demonstrated the intelligence power of the US-backed Israel, acting almost like a terrorist state, and its ability to carry out attacks on the territory of other countries throughout the region. The attack via pagers revealed Israel's intelligence and technological capabilities alongside its military capabilities.'

Doster also recalls the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. He says that the consecutive attacks are a sign of Israel's desire to expand the war and, if possible, to involve Iran in the matter.

'THE US ARMY MAY BE FORCED TO JOIN THE WAR'

On the other hand, Doster also states that Israel is forcing the US to become militarily involved in the war.

Doster's statements are as follows:

'The US provides unconditional support to Israel, but it does not want it to expand the war. Israel wants to expand the war to get the support of the US armed forces. It is trying to involve Iran and Lebanon in the war. Thus, the US army may be forced to join the war. However, the US does not want this.'

US President Joe Biden (left) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right)

CAN NETANYAHU BE REINED IN?

In recent months, the Israeli press has been making claims that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to attack Lebanon. Interpreting these claims and the political situation in Israel, Doster reminds us that Netanyahu has been able to do most of what he wanted so far, and notes the following:

'Before October 7, Netanyahu was very weak. There were corruption allegations against him and his wife. The constitutional regulations he wanted to make were drawing the reaction of the army and government members. Anti-Netanyahu protests were gathering large crowds.'

'After October 7, Netanyahu faced resistance, but he began to do what he wanted. He was able to implement a significant portion, if not all, of the practices he wanted to start and the laws he wanted to pass. There are ebbs and flows in the cabinet, there are reactions and resignations. However, these have not been able to rein in Netanyahu.'

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (left) had said he was against opening a new front in Lebanon

THE POSSIBILITY OF WAR ON TWO FRONTS FOR THE ISRAELI ARMY

Lebanese Hezbollah retaliating against Israel is another possible scenario. Doster makes the following assessments regarding this possibility:

'Hezbollah defeated Israel militarily in the 2006 war. Hezbollah is much stronger than Hamas. Its number of soldiers, equipment, personnel quality, and organization are much more advanced than Hamas. If such a development occurs, Israel will have to fight on two fronts. This is something the Israeli army does not want at all. The command echelon of the Israeli army does not want this.'

'So, how willing is Lebanese Hezbollah to fight Israel? When we look at Lebanon, it is clear that state authority has disappeared, there is no financial stability, and politics are extremely unstable.'

US intelligence estimates that Hezbollah has 45,000 fighters, 20,000 of whom are active

WILL HEZBOLLAH ATTACK ISRAEL?

Lebanon's internal dynamics are one of the biggest obstacles to Hezbollah starting a war with Israel. Drawing attention to this situation, Doster expressed the following:

'Would Lebanese Hezbollah draw a reaction if it caused Lebanon to be subjected to more attacks by openly fighting Israel? People might react to Hezbollah... Lebanese Hezbollah is acting more cautiously in order not to lose mass support. Despite all of Israel's provocation efforts and provocative moves, it remains prudent.'

Doster finally notes the following:

'Netanyahu is concerned with protecting his seat, while on the other hand, Hezbollah does not want the war to spread and draw Lebanon into it.'

Prof. Dr. Barış Doster