ISIS's restructuring process raises concerns

It is stated that ISIS is acting in a more organized manner than at any time since its defeat in 2019. Security officials from Syria, Iraq, the US, and Europe indicate that the organization has entered a restructuring process. It has been reported that ISIS has activated its sleeper cells in Syria and Iraq, distributed weapons, and increased its propaganda activities.

Following the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December, it was observed that ISIS had re-emerged on the scene. It was learned that on December 2, two ISIS militants crossed into Iraq carrying orders for attacks but were captured. Eleven days later, a suicide bomber was stopped in Daquq thanks to intelligence. Iraqi commander Abdul Amir al-Bayati said, "ISIS is turning chaos into an opportunity."

ATTACK NUMBERS ARE LOW, BUT THE DANGER PERSISTS

According to data from the SITE Intelligence Group, ISIS claimed responsibility for 38 attacks in Syria in the first five months of 2025. This is one-third of the number of attacks from last year. In Iraq, only four attacks were claimed. Experts state that this silence indicates the organization is in a new restructuring process.

European intelligence sources have detected that some foreign fighters have returned to Syria for the first time in years. It is not yet clear whether these individuals have joined ISIS or other groups. However, this development shows that the organization's potential to gain an international dimension persists.

The efforts of Ahmed Shara, the leader of the post-Assad transitional government, to move closer to the West have been met with backlash from some jihadist groups. Condemning Shara's meeting with Trump, ISIS called on foreign fighters to join its ranks.

THE FUTURE OF ISIS IS UNCERTAIN

The future of the camps under YPG/SDF control, where approximately 9 thousand ISIS members and their families are held, remains uncertain. US Department of Defense officials stated that they would monitor the Shara administration closely.

Iraq is focusing on preemptive operations to prevent ISIS from regaining strength. Targeted airstrikes, drone-supported surveillance, and coordination in border regions have been increased. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said, "ISIS is still growing; the stability of Syria is critical for our security."

IS ISIS'S SILENCE A RESTRUCTURING PROCESS?

Rita Katz, Director of the SITE Intelligence Group, stated that the decrease in the number of ISIS attacks does not mean the organization has weakened. Katz commented, "It is likely a period of restructuring and strategy." It is estimated that there are between 1,500 and 3,000 ISIS terrorists in Syria and Iraq. Officials stated that ISIS does not have the power to seize large territories as it did in the 2014–2017 period, but it is waiting for opportunities in the region.