Oil shock in the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical transit routes for global trade and energy transfer, has been closed to vessel traffic for 94 days. As security in the region is deemed impossible to guarantee on a permanent basis due to ongoing tensions, experts and industry representatives emphasize that the current situation is unsustainable.

The strait, which is the focal point for critical energy trade—particularly oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) on a global scale—has failed to reopen consistently for weeks. Although the U.S. administration occasionally makes promising statements, firms operating in the maritime transport sector remain cautious about returning to the region without the continuity of military protection and the establishment of a lasting peaceful environment.

It has been reported that while approximately 100 cargo ships normally pass through the strait daily, only a very limited number of vessels have been able to transit in recent days. Reports indicate that seven ships passed last Friday, and only four ships were able to cross over the weekend. This traffic remains far below the level of activity required by energy markets.

According to expert assessments, crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for one-fifth of the global supply. The disruption of these transits is hindering the supply of not only oil but also products such as liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. With the resurgence of conflicts, an increase in oil prices has been observed.

New attacks over the weekend and the deadlock in peace negotiations have further heightened anxiety within industry circles. Most recently, a cargo ship in the Persian Gulf was struck by unidentified munitions, demonstrating that the threat level remains high. Due to incidents in the region, 39 ships have been attacked to date, and 11 seafarers have lost their lives.

Industry professionals state that for maritime transport to return to its normal course, a long-term security environment and international consensus are essential, rather than just a few successful transits. The military escort practice implemented last month was short-lived; the U.S. Central Command has announced that they are currently providing only communication support.

Due to the closure of the strait, some container ships carrying food and essential supplies to Gulf countries remain stranded in the region. This situation has significantly affected the fleets of international container shipping companies. The global congestion resulting from ships unable to depart from ports has caused freight rates to reach record levels worldwide.

Major Greece-based tanker operators reported that their freight revenues in the first quarter exceeded a 200 percent increase compared to the previous year. However, industry representatives note that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open, the problems accumulated during this period would not be resolved immediately, and that the rotation of crews who have remained in the region for months and the reactivation of oil fields will take time. The lack of confidence created in global markets is described as being too deep to be rectified overnight.