Serhat Erkmen analyzes: What is happening in Syria? What will happen in the region from now on?

Following the capture of Aleppo by jihadist groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, the Syrian National Army (SNA), acting in coordination with HTS, has entered Tel Rifaat.

As the clashes in Syria continue, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmenshared his assessments regarding the latest developments in the region.

Emphasizing that the Syrian National Army made a significant move by severing the Tel Rifaat-Raqqa line, Erkmen stated that most of the center and surroundings of Tel Rifaat have been taken from the YPG, adding: "There are still a few places in the region held by the YPG, but no one will be left there by tomorrow. This is a very serious gain against the YPG. Do not underestimate it." he commented.

"HTS ADVANCE HAS STOPPED IN HAMA"

Stating that the center, south, and west of Aleppo are under HTS control, while the north and east are controlled by the SNA, Erkmen underlined that the HTS advance has halted in Hama.

"SYRIAN ARMY LACKS COUNTER-OFFENSIVE POWER"

Expressing that the Syrian Army is trying to regroup its forces in northern Hama, Erkmen said, "They do not yet have the power for a counter-offensive. They have retaken a few places, but this will not change the balance. If full external support arrives, they might be able to make a move within a month, but it will be very difficult. Because the route through which Iran would bring support could be cut off." he stated.

Regarding the situation of the YPG in the region, Erkmen assessed: "The YPG does not want to lose militants in the west. It has accepted the offer to withdraw from Aleppo presented by HTS. HTS and the YPG will not fight. The YPG needs these militants in the east." he remarked.

"RUSSIA IS TRYING TO TRIGGER A MIGRATION MOVEMENT"

Underlining that Russia has not yet taken a significant military step, Erkmen commented, "They are trying to trigger a migration movement by striking civilians." he said.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE REGION FROM NOW ON?

At the end of his post, Erkmen stated, "From now on, the conflict may focus on the south and east of the country. Another power struggle will begin in and around Aleppo regarding how the city will be governed." he said.

The full text of Erkmen's post is as follows:

1. The SNA made a very important move. By entering from the east of Aleppo, it severed the Tel Rifaat-Raqqa line. The direct move on Tel Rifaat was successful. Most of the center and surroundings of Tel Rifaat were taken from the YPG. There are still a few places held by the YPG. No one will be left there by tomorrow. This is a very serious gain against the YPG. Do not underestimate it.

2. The SNA's capture of the Kuveyris airbase, the Aleppo thermal power plant, the industrial zone in Sheikh Najjar, and Hafse, which houses the water facility supplying water to Aleppo, has made it a significant power in Aleppo. HTS controls the center, south, and west of Aleppo, while the SNA controls the north and east.

3. The HTS advance has stopped in Hama. They lost a few insignificant places. Today, HTS focused on the center of Aleppo. They completely removed the Syrian army. They have taken steps regarding the city's administration. Although measures are being taken for security, the city is calm. This is not an easy task in such a large city.

4. The Syrian Army has regrouped. The collapse has stopped. It is gathering its strength in northern Hama. It does not yet have the power for a counter-offensive. It has retaken a few places, but this will not change the balance. If full external support arrives, it might be able to make a move within a month, but it will be very difficult. Because the route through which Iran would bring support could be cut off.

5. A US move is coming in the south. The demonstration that started in Daraa yesterday has not grown yet. However, the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) is trying to move north from Tanf. This FSA and the PYD will try to meet in Deir ez-Zor and cut off Iran's connection to Lebanon. I wrote about the reason for this two months ago.

6. The YPG does not want to lose militants in the west. It has accepted the offer to withdraw from Aleppo presented by HTS. HTS and the YPG will not fight. The YPG needs these militants in the east. Do not underestimate the Deir ez-Zor issue.

7. Some friends on social media said today that the Manbij operation has started. This is not true. Nothing has started yet. There were a few clashes west of Manbij, but that does not mean an operation has begun. In fact, it has nothing to do with it.

8. Russia has still not taken a significant military step. It is trying to trigger a migration movement by striking civilians. Civilian massacres have increased, but it has not caused a new and large wave of migration.

9. From now on, the conflict may focus on the south and east of the country. Another power struggle will begin in and around Aleppo regarding how the city will be governed.