Striking assessment on Syria from Assoc. Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen: The race to see who will take Damascus first has begun
The Assad regime in Syria has withdrawn to the west of Homs, abandoning eastern and southern provinces. This move has triggered a power struggle among opposition groups to seize Damascus. While HTS, the Free Syrian Army, and opposition forces from Daraa advance on critical regions, Hezbollah is reinforcing its defensive lines.
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Assoc. Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen evaluated the developments in Syria in a post written on his personal account on the social media platform X.
Here is that assessment, point by point:
The Syrian government has collapsed and retreated to an area it considers safe. It has abandoned the provinces in the east and south. This situation has sparked a new race. The Assad regime's new territory now extends from the Qusayr line west of Homs, northward to Latakia. It does not care about the rest.
This withdrawal has left a massive power vacuum in Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, As-Suwayda, Daraa, and eastern Homs. Now, opposition groups have entered a race to control Damascus. However, the term "opposition" is very broad; you cannot understand the new political structure by putting them all in one basket.
HTS and its allies emerged from Idlib and took the centers of Aleppo and Hama. They are trying to come from the east of Homs. They cannot take western Hama and western Homs at the moment. Another reason they are entering eastern Homs is to participate in the power struggle in the desert. But the real issue is that HTS wants to be in Damascus.
In the south, a "Southern Operations Room" was established in Daraa. These opposition fighters were previously trained by the Russians. Russia is no longer there, and they have made a new choice. HTS and the Daraa opposition have formed an alliance. Since the road to Homs is blocked, HTS is trying to reach Damascus through its ally in the south.
I will mention another group: the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Do not confuse this group with the FSA/SNA close to Turkey. The FSA was trained by the US at al-Tanf on the Jordanian border and is directly affiliated with the US.
The FSA has emerged from the desert and is advancing on Damascus from the east. It has come very close to the city. The people of Daraa are moving from the south and southwest. The race to see who will take Damascus first has begun. Whoever enters first will declare the new government. The heart of Syria beats here. Those who are directly the US's men and those who are ready to cooperate with the US are in this race.
The YPG did what was expected of it. It moved to the west of the Euphrates. It would have gone further down, but it was forced to stop. The launch of the Manbij operation by the SNA forced the YPG into a defensive position.
Hezbollah has sent a large number of militants to Qusayr. The Assad administration is initiating its defense from this region and the west of Homs.
The Manbij operation will change the balance in the northeast. However, its impact is not limited; the process for HTS and its allies to move toward Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor beyond Damascus will begin. But the priority is to focus on Homs and Damascus.