Tensions rise in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea

Pressure on maritime trade routes and energy shipments in the Middle East has increased once again. While the Houthis' advance against government forces in Yemen threatens Saudi Arabia's oil exports along the Red Sea route, the targeting of a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz has further escalated tensions between the US and Iran.

It was reported that in the last two days, the Houthis have captured the port city of Mokha and a strategically important island in the Red Sea. This development has increased concerns regarding the security of shipments passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. The Riyadh administration announced that it has closed a major pipeline connecting oil fields in the east to the Red Sea following drone attacks, which were stated to have originated from Iraq.

Developments in the region were not limited to the Yemen front. Attacks allegedly originating from Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias are present, and statements by the Houthis regarding their support for these groups have strengthened fears that the crisis could spread across interconnected fronts.

According to data compiled by Kpler, Houthi attacks have led to a significant decline in Saudi Arabia's oil exports to Asia. It was reported that shipments, which were approximately 3.4 million barrels per day in June, fell to 128 thousand barrels in August, and have recovered to the level of 700 thousand barrels per day this month.

FATAL ATTACK IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

According to the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, a commercial vessel was hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Qeshm Governor Hossein Amir Teymouri announced that the attack occurred near Hengam Island and the Shib Deraz coast of Qeshm Island. 1 person lost their life and 3 people were injured in the incident.

The Iranian side announced that the attack was carried out by US forces. However, due to the mutual ship attacks in the region and conflicting statements, it remains unclear how the diplomatic consequences of the incident will take shape. The Strait of Hormuz stands out as one of the critical waterways through which approximately one-fifth of global oil trade passes.

Assessments reported by Al Jazeera also emphasized that the risk of the tension in Hormuz turning into a wider regional conflict has increased. Mutual attacks targeting cargo ships between the US and Iran have made the already fragile security environment even more sensitive.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned US naval elements not to approach the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement published by the Fars news agency, in response to US President Donald Trump's claims that Washington controls the waterway, the following expressions were used: "If the Strait of Hormuz is under US control, go ahead, bring one of your warships 100 kilometers closer."

RIYADH'S OPTIONS ARE NARROWING

Saudi Arabia was trying to continue its shipments through alternative routes by transporting its oil across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea to overcome the risks on the Hormuz line. However, the Houthis' gains around the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb have made this option riskier as well.

Saudi Arabia conducted military operations against the Houthis for years starting in 2015. The conflicts led to an estimated 150 thousand deaths until the 2022 ceasefire and brought Yemen to the brink of famine at times. In recent years, the Riyadh administration was trying to leave the Yemen file behind and focus on economic transformation and regional stability.

Chatham House Middle East expert Neil Quilliam stated that the recent Houthi gains have increased the pressure on Riyadh, assessing that the options before Saudi Arabia involve "significant costs and uncertain outcomes."

Sherwan Hindreen Ali, Middle East research director at the conflict monitoring group ACLED, also stated that Saudi Arabia increasing its military response could prolong the conflict and pave the way for heavier attacks on energy infrastructure. According to Ali, the Houthis' weapons capacity has become more sophisticated compared to the past.

Former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney said the recent developments are "extremely frustrating" for Riyadh. Stating that Saudi Arabia is worried about being drawn into a war it does not want despite its reaction to Iran, Ratney assessed, "Once it started, all the worst-case scenarios began to come true."

It is also unclear what stance Washington will take. It is stated that US forces are concentrated around Hormuz, and that the option of a new military operation in Yemen has become difficult politically and militarily due to the blockade against Iran and the ship security agenda. Trump, on the other hand, said that Iran is "most likely" behind the Saudi pipeline attack.

While it was reported that the White House did not respond to requests for comment on the plan to intervene in Yemen, it had previously been stated that Trump was distant from the idea of increasing military pressure regarding a war with Iran. According to Ratney, it seems more difficult for the Saudis to achieve their goals without the consistent US support they had while fighting the Houthis in the past.