The bill for the three-month-long war has become clear

In the three months since the US and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28, many parameters in world markets have changed significantly. In the atmosphere of uncertainty created by the war, the turmoil in the oil market in particular continues to trigger inflation on a global scale. During this period, while shares of companies operating in the field of artificial intelligence have risen, the dollar has also stood out as a safe haven. On the other hand, bond markets and certain sectors have experienced losses.

PRESSURE ON OIL INCREASES WHILE SEARCH FOR ALTERNATIVES ACCELERATES

The reflection of the war process on energy markets has been quite severe. Brent oil prices rose by nearly 40 percent in a short time and have become permanently established above 100 dollars per barrel. While the price jump in the initial period reached almost double the pre-war level, major economies tried to reduce the impact of the supply shock by releasing a total of 400 million barrels from their strategic oil reserves into the market. However, the pressure on the markets continues, and inflationary pressure has become evident in countries that import energy deficits.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE STOCKS AND TECHNOLOGY AT THE FOREFRONT

Despite the shadow of the war, the performance of technology and artificial intelligence companies in world stock markets has been noteworthy. While stock indices in the US reached record levels, the South Korean Kospi index and European stock markets also moved near their peaks. While SK Hynix's market value exceeded 1 trillion dollars, semiconductor manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology also gained strength. In contrast, value losses were observed in the aviation and luxury goods sectors.

Willem Sels, Global CIO of HSBC Private Bank, emphasized the differentiation between sectors and highlighted that they are trying to get ahead of risks with an 'underweight' position.

THE SHINING FACE OF THE DOLLAR

During a period when the search for a safe haven intensified, the US dollar outperformed major global currencies with a value increase of approximately 1.5 percent. Rising bond yields in the US also supported the strengthening of the dollar. However, some experts state that the dollar could fall again in the post-war period. Van Luu, Global Head of Strategy at Russell Investments, expressed that a weakening in the dollar is expected in the medium term.

Asian countries were among the regions that felt the impact of the war most severely due to their dependence on the amount of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The currencies of India, Indonesia, and the Philippines saw historic lows against the dollar. While many countries tightened their monetary policies, Sri Lanka surprisingly increased its policy interest rates by 100 basis points. Only the Chinese yuan managed to maintain its relative stability with strong energy stocks.

Rising oil prices accelerated economic contraction, especially in Europe and the UK; the Eurozone experienced its sharpest decline in the last two and a half years. The European Central Bank drew attention to the fragilities in the market. In the UK, companies also reported that energy costs are increasing the burden on businesses.

The US, on the other hand, was relatively less negatively affected due to its more independent movement in terms of energy and the impact of technological investments. Nevertheless, fuel prices in the US reached their highest level in the last four years, rising to 4.56 dollars per gallon.

In the bond markets, rising interest rates drew attention. The yield on the US 30-year bond exceeded 5 percent, reaching its highest level since 2007. In Germany, 10-year bond yields saw a 15-year peak. Investors are acting on the expectation that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates two more times by the end of the year.