Election poll in the US: Trump pulls ahead of Harris in critical states

The US will head to the polls for the presidential election on November 5. The election, which the whole world will follow closely, will feature a race between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and the Republican candidate Donald Trump.

As the countdown to the 60th presidential election continues, the close competition between Harris and Trump is heating up.

According to the average of national polls featured on the news platform "Real Clear Politics (RCP)," which publishes polls conducted during the US presidential election process, Harris has reached 49.2 percent support.

Accordingly, Harris appears to be ahead of Trump, who has gathered 47.5 percent support in the same polls.

TRUMP LEADS BY A NARROW MARGIN IN CRITICAL STATES

Although Harris appears to be slightly ahead in national polls, the results in "swing states" carry more weight due to the American presidential election system, where the candidate who reaches the most delegates, rather than the one who receives the most votes, becomes president.

Due to the system known as the "Electoral College," which is of critical importance, the average of polls in the 7 swing states shows that Trump is ahead of Harris by a 0.7-point margin.

Accordingly, based on the latest polls in October, Trump is leading the race ahead of Harris by 0.3 points in Pennsylvania, 0.7 in Georgia, 1.1 in Arizona, 0.5 in Nevada, 1 in Michigan, and 1.3 points in North Carolina.

In the same polls, Harris is 0.3 points ahead in Wisconsin, while it appears that Trump has fallen behind in Michigan, where Harris had consistently been leading until the last week.

HARRIS LEADS IN NATIONAL POLLS

On the other hand, according to the average of 11 current polls reflecting the situation across the country, which include prominent polls such as Reuters, CBS News, Pew, Harvard, and NBC News, Harris has 49.2 percent of the vote, while Trump has 47.5 percent.

In the Reuters study among these polls, support for Harris emerged as 47 percent and support for Trump as 44 percent, while in the Harvard poll, Harris appears to have reached 51 percent and Trump 49 percent.

It is noted that Harris, who had almost the same vote share as Trump in polls conducted in July, has partially increased her support during this period, especially among female and Hispanic voters.

PROJECTION OF POTENTIAL DELEGATE COUNTS FAVORS TRUMP

Because of the election system where a total of 535 delegates are distributed and the candidate who reaches 270 delegates becomes president, all eyes will essentially be on the critical states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

If the picture emerging from current polls in these states is reflected in delegate counts, it appears that Trump has a slight advantage in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, while Harris has a slight advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin.

It is projected that if Trump wins in 5 of the 7 swing states in question, he could reach 302 delegates, while Harris could remain at 236 delegates.

BETTING COMPANIES SAY 'TRUMP'

According to the RCP platform, which also includes betting companies' predictions regarding the candidates' probability of winning, the average of these predictions shows that Trump is closer to winning the presidential race.

Sharing data from 7 separate companies named Polymarket, Smarket, Points Bet, Bwin, Bovada, Betsson, and Betfair, RCP estimates Trump's probability of winning at 56.3 percent and Harris's at 42.6 percent.

All of these betting companies see Trump's chance of winning as 55 percent or higher.

MUSLIM VOTERS REACT TO US GOVERNMENT'S GAZA POLICY

All polls across the country show that inflation and economic problems, debates regarding abortion, and border security are the main topics on voters' minds. However, the US policy on Gaza, in particular, is seen as a significant topic for Americans.

While Michigan, where US Muslims and Arabs are most concentrated, draws attention as an important state with 15 delegates where this foreign policy issue will be influential, 13 percent of the vote was cast as "uncommitted" across the state in the primaries held in February due to harsh criticisms of Biden's Gaza policy.

These voters, who stand out as dissident Democrats, stated that they might not vote for the Democratic government, whose unconditional support for Israel they criticize, but also noted that they do not see Trump as an alternative.