The region is on the brink of war: What will be Iran's response to Israel? Here are 5 possible scenarios...

While Israel's overnight airstrikes on Iran have pushed regional tensions to their peak, the international community is focused on how the Tehran administration will respond. The commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, and the Chief of General Staff lost their lives in the attacks. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei signaled retaliation, stating, "Israel will pay a heavy price."

100 UAVS LAUNCHED

According to AFP, approximately 100 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were launched from Iran toward Israel following the Israeli attack. The Israeli military is attempting to repel this assault. Scenarios regarding Iran's potential countermove are currently dominating the international press.

1. US BASES COULD BE TARGETED

According to an analysis by The Times, it is possible that Iran could launch missile attacks on US bases in the region, particularly in Iraq and Qatar. Tehran took a similar step following the killing of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, striking US bases at that time without causing any loss of life. However, it is noted that this time, multiple bases could be targeted simultaneously, and Iranian-backed groups could also participate in the attacks.

2. OIL FIELDS COULD BE TARGETED

Iran could target oil infrastructure in the region in response to the Israeli attack. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait provide a large portion of the world's oil supply. In the 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities, production was temporarily cut in half. According to The Times, Iran may resort to similar attacks following strikes on its nuclear infrastructure.

3. THE OPTION OF CLOSING THE PERSIAN GULF

According to the third scenario, Iran may consider halting global energy traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately one-third of global oil passes through this route. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has already issued warnings to ships in the region to exercise caution.

4. IRAN COULD STRIKE ISRAEL DIRECTLY

In response to an Israeli attack on nuclear facilities, it is possible for Iran to launch direct missile strikes on Israeli territory, including Tel Aviv. In missile attacks carried out in recent months, some missiles managed to bypass Israel's advanced air defense systems and hit strategic points.

5. PROXY GROUPS COULD BE ACTIVATED

The final scenario involves the activation of armed groups close to Iran. It is noted that Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq could actively strike Israeli or US targets. Recent attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea and Hezbollah's attacks near the border strengthen this possibility.