Central Bank to announce interest rate decision today: What are the market expectations?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will hold its Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting today. The meeting, led by Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan, will begin at 14:00.

INTEREST RATES HAVE REMAINED STABLE FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS

The Central Bank has kept the policy rate at 50 percent for the last five months. Market participants and economists predict that the TCMB will not change interest rates at this meeting either. 

The vast majority of economists participating in the Reuters survey anticipate that interest rate cuts will begin in November at the earliest. Some of the economists participating in the survey expect the cut to take place in October, while others expect it to occur in the first quarter of 2024.

Similar results are also present in the Bloomberg HT survey. According to the survey, in which 24 institutions participated, it is predicted that the TCMB will keep the interest rate stable at 50 percent at this meeting. In the survey, the policy rate expectation for the end of 2024 is an average of 47.5 percent. Among the participants, the highest estimate was recorded at 50 percent, and the lowest estimate was 45 percent.