Important assessments from experts following the Istanbul earthquake! German Professor warns: The risk remains

The 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred off the coast of Silivri, Istanbul, has brought the discussions regarding the expected major earthquake in the Marmara region back to the agenda. Prof. Dr. Marco Bohnhoff, one of Germany's leading seismologists, pointed to two possible scenarios in his statement. According to the first scenario, this earthquake could be the main shock, and only aftershocks may continue. The second scenario suggests that this earthquake could be a precursor to a larger tremor.

Prof. Bohnhoff stated that if the second scenario occurs, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake could strike the Marmara region. However, he noted that it is currently impossible to say which scenario is valid.

COULD LAST FOR DAYS

Experts state that the recent earthquake has shifted the tension on the Marmara fault line toward Istanbul, increasing the probability of a larger tremor around the megacity. However, no precise prediction can be made as to when this tremor might occur.

Bohnhoff said that aftershocks in the region could last for days or even weeks, but these tremors would generally not exceed a magnitude of 5. While this provides relative relief for the public, he reminded that caution must still be exercised.

THE RISK REMAINS

The German scientist had previously warned after the February 6, 2023, earthquakes that stress in the region had been redistributed and that new earthquakes could occur in the northeast direction. His statements today reveal that this risk is still valid.