Naci Görür warns once again: "The earthquake will be felt at an intensity of 9"

Prof. Dr. Naci Görür and Prof. Dr. Kamil Yılmaz discussed the potential consequences of the expected Marmara earthquake and its possible economic impacts at the Fourth Panel of the T24 Annual Meetings held at the Hilton Istanbul Bosphorus Conference Center.

Görür stated that the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault produces earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above on average every 250 years. Görür continued, "Today, the recurrence period has arrived," and added, "Let's stop asking whether or not there will be an earthquake in the Sea of Marmara.

The scientific reality is that this earthquake will happen." Görür stated that the earthquake would be felt at an intensity of 9 on the European side of Istanbul.

"IT HAS BEEN CONTINUING LIKE THIS FOR CENTURIES"

Stating that the Sea of Marmara is an earthquake sea, Görür said, "This sea was formed because an earthquake occurred and the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault is active in that region.

The reason for the formation of the sea is the fault movement and earthquakes in this region. The North Anatolian Fault has a characteristic; it has been continuing like this for centuries. It carries earthquakes from east to west. We call this the migration of earthquakes," he said.

"IT COMES BY BREAKING AND TRANSFERRING STRESS"

Görür said, "The earthquakes that occurred in the 20th century after the 1939 Erzincan earthquake: '42, '43, '57, '67, and two in '99... These earthquakes start from Erzincan and come all the way to Marmara. Each of these earthquakes is around magnitude seven or larger. It starts in the east in '39, and by '99, it is at the gates of Istanbul.

When the '99 earthquakes happened, we sounded the alarm, saying 'prepare Istanbul for an earthquake.' The Kocaeli earthquake occurred in '99, and to its west is the Sea of Marmara.

Wherever the North Anatolian Fault causes an earthquake, the next earthquake is in an area to its west. In other words, it comes by breaking and transferring stress. It has now reached the Sea of Marmara, and we are waiting for the Sea of Marmara to break," he stated.

"AN EARTHQUAKE REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 7.6 WILL OCCUR"

Pointing to the map above, Görür said regarding the expected earthquake in Marmara, "The fault south of the Princes' Islands is a locked fault. It is the fault we expect to break.

There is also the Kumburgaz Fault, which is also locked. The fault in the west of Marmara, the Tekirdağ Fault, broke in the 1912 Şarköy earthquake.

There are two fault branches where we expect an earthquake: one is the Kumburgaz Fault Branch and the other is the Islands Fault Branch. If these faults break, an earthquake of at least 7.2 and up to a maximum of 7.6 will occur in Marmara," he said.

"THE EUROPEAN SIDE IS NOT VERY DURABLE"

Görür said, "On the European side, yellow-brown soil dominates. These are young soils, relatively sinking ones, and they are not very durable. If these places make up the ground, they are not earthquake-resistant; they are of a nature that will amplify the earthquake. Structures built on top of these must be built very carefully because the ground underneath also causes problems in terms of earthquakes. On the Asian side, there are older rocks.

They have characteristics that can reduce earthquake damage, are more durable, and will not cause as much damage to the structures on and inside them.

The Asian side is relatively better than the European side in terms of ground and geological conditions regarding earthquakes. Water is extremely dangerous in an earthquake. The pressure of water causes the balance of structures on the ground to be disrupted," he stated.

"THE EUROPEAN SIDE WILL BE AFFECTED MORE THAN THE ASIAN SIDE IN EVERY ASPECT"

Görür said, "The ground on the Asian side shows much more difference compared to the European side. The ground on the European side is not of good quality.

Red colors dominate the shores of Marmara. Ground acceleration will affect areas close to the coast during the earthquake. It does not make much difference between Europe and Asia. Within 10km from Marmara, the acceleration of the ground is very high. This means it will put more load on all structures.

When we look at the intensity of the earthquake, on the European side, especially in areas close to the coast, the intensity is at level 9. On the European side, the intensity of the earthquake will inevitably be much higher. If you look at the Asian side, the dark blue area is limited, less.

The European side will be affected more by the earthquake in terms of intensity. The Asian side will be relatively less affected. In summary, the European side will be affected more than the Asian side in every aspect, the intensity of the earthquake will be higher there. The structure of the ground is worse there. Asia is better in terms of ground, but there is not much of a distinction between the two continents in the coastal region," he said.

"AT LEAST 98 THOUSAND BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED IN ISTANBUL"

Görür said, "In terms of loss of property, 37,984 buildings were destroyed in 11 provinces. According to the study by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, the number of buildings expected to be leveled in Istanbul is at least 98 thousand. This is due to the nature and density of the building stock in Istanbul. 60 percent of it was built with a shanty-town mentality, good materials were not used, and a non-durable building stock emerged through illegal theft and corner-cutting from materials.

One of the other important consequences of this earthquake in Istanbul will be ecosystem and environmental pollution. To cope with this, we need to prepare very intensively right now. 100 million tons of waste came out of today's earthquake zone. We could not dispose of this rubble; we piled it up in places near cities, buried it, and supposedly handled it! When rubble is buried, the components inside it, including asbestos, and physico-chemical biological events cause all unwanted toxic carcinogenic substances in this region to leak into the soil and reach the citizen's table through streams, etc., and the food chain.

People who are not killed by the earthquake will be affected for this reason. Much more than 100 million tons will come out in Istanbul, not just 100 million tons. The authorities in Istanbul have no idea how they will dispose of the rubble that will emerge. If you dispose of hundreds of millions of tons of material in Istanbul using methods other than international ones, the environmental pollution you will create + the Marmara will make our lives in this region difficult," he said.