UK to be vulnerable to tropical disease-carrying mosquitoes by 2060

According to a report by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), the number of heat-related deaths in the country will increase 12-fold by 2070, and the capital, London, will become suitable for mosquitoes from tropical regions that carry dengue fever, Zika virus, and Chikungunya virus.

The UKHSA has published its report titled "Health Effects of Climate Change," which addresses the impacts of climate change on human health and the health problems that would be caused in the worst-case scenarios of the future. The 15-chapter report, prepared by experts from the health sector, academia, and public institutions, draws attention to the fact that health problems stemming from heat, mosquitoes, floods, and food security will increase as a result of climate change.

Pointing out that the summer of 2022 was a season in which temperature records were broken both in the UK and globally, the report emphasizes that more than 3,000 people lost their lives due to heat in England and Wales during this period. The report includes estimates that by 2030, heat will cause 1.5 times more deaths in the UK, and by 2070, it will cause 12 times more deaths, while sharing the information that the expected number of annual deaths by 2050 will be 10,000.

Drawing attention to the rising average age in the country, the report emphasizes that the current working population will be over 65 between 2050 and 2080, and those born today will be in the working population, stating that climate change will most affect those living today.

Noting that heat-related health problems are expected to be seen most in urban areas, the report states that the Midlands, located in the central part of the country, is the most at-risk region.

The report predicts that heat will cause drought, mosquitoes, and fires in the south of the country.

LONDON WILL BECOME A HOME FOR MOSQUITOES BY 2060

In the report, which assesses that there will be an increase in diseases transmitted to humans by mosquitoes and other living organisms, a warning is issued that invasive mosquito species new to the UK, such as the Aedes and Culex types, will spread throughout the country.

The report states that in addition to the Chikungunya virus—which means "that which bends up" in an African language—dengue fever and Zika virus will increase in London and other parts of the UK.

The report draws attention to the fact that many infectious diseases are also directly related to heat.

Noting that London will become a home for dengue fever carried by mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions, the report emphasizes that in the worst-case scenario, the city will become suitable for endemic dengue fever by 2060, which is a significant risk to public health.

Similarly, it is stated that the low-lying areas of Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland will begin to host new types of mosquitoes between 2060 and 2070.

The report states that climate change also directly causes flooding and flash floods, drawing attention to the fact that floods in the UK will most affect mental health. Including estimates that flood victims will experience more depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder, the report states that if global warming exceeds 2 degrees, the flood risk in the UK in 2050 is expected to be 118 percent compared to today, and 61 percent if it is 2 degrees.

The report emphasizes that global warming increases sea levels and points out that the UK is dependent on agricultural products from countries that will be heavily affected by climate change.

Drawing attention to the fact that climate-related problems in countries from which the UK imports food products will affect not only health but also migration, the economy, and security, the report also touches upon the damage this situation will cause to the health system.

The report projects that the cost of climate change-related ailments and socio-economic changes to the National Health Service (NHS), which was 6.8 billion pounds (approximately 247 billion lira) in 2020, will be 14.7 billion pounds (approximately 533 billion lira) annually by 2050.

The report states that many risks are preventable and that the primary step to be taken is to implement measures that will keep global warming below 1.5 degrees.

Furthermore, it is stated that buildings constructed using healthier building materials will produce less greenhouse gas, use less energy and fuel, that more green space will have positive effects on mental health, and that the burden on health services must be reduced starting today.

Lea Berrang, Head of the UKHSA Centre for Climate and Health Security, whose assessments are included in the report, shared the forecast that temperatures will continue to rise until the middle of this century.

Berrang stated that the steps to be taken to reduce risks will create a win-win situation in the future.