Can a “success story” emerge? Erdoğan's 'self-serving' policy

Let's ask the question without further ado.

Can a success story for Erdoğan emerge from the Gaza crisis?

There are 5 months left until the local elections.

Even though he won the May 14-28 elections, retained the presidential seat, and the AKP secured a parliamentary majority, the local elections are not a sure thing according to Erdoğan.

Especially in Istanbul.

Despite Kılıçdaroğlu doing his best to ensure the CHP suffers a defeat, Erdoğan is acting cautiously regarding Istanbul.

He does not want to leave anything to chance.

He also knows that the stance of the IYI Party and HEDEP will be decisive in Istanbul.

On the other hand, it is important that the economic crisis does not deepen further until the elections, or at least that the dollar remains at this level.

Can Mehmet Şimşek find and bring in hot money from abroad, and even if he does, will this money be a balm for Turkey's wounds, will inflation fall; it does not seem possible to answer these and similar questions with a "yes" for now.

Perhaps they can muddle through until the election by having the Central Bank raise the policy rate and by selling foreign currency to the market through the back door.

As for after the election, God is merciful...

Erdoğan's goal is to take the metropolitan cities held by the CHP, especially Istanbul.

However, there is a clear disintegration in the AKP base due to the deepening economic crisis.

In particular, retirees, who make up a significant portion of his own base, are breaking their emotional bond with the AKP and Erdoğan!

The balance in favor of the AKP is gradually deteriorating.

It is clear that the results of the public opinion polls, which have now become routine at Beştepe, have caused alarm bells to ring in the Palace!

As he does before every election, Erdoğan needs to rapidly and strongly fortify his own base.

For Erdoğan, whose political algorithm is entirely aimed at winning elections and maintaining his power, the formula for this is clear:

Heavy identity politics, a strong Islamist and nationalist discourse, sharp polarization; pressure and intimidation against anyone who is an opponent...

However, for all these policies to yield results in Erdoğan's favor in the current state of affairs, there is a need for a well-crafted "success story" that will polish him in the eyes of the masses and make him a hero.

Naturally, the more this success story fits the Islamist and nationalist vein, the more acceptable it will be for Erdoğan.

It is of great importance that the success story that will push economic problems into the background during Erdoğan's election process emerges from foreign policy!

For example, issues like Syria, the European Union, NATO, PYD/PKK, Ukraine, Karabakh, or Palestine...

Especially since foreign policy is shielded from criticism through untouchable topics like the Islamic world and Islamic brotherhood, it is possible for him to secure a wide maneuvering space for himself during the election process!

Here, the Gaza issue, which has now turned into a "humanitarian crisis" following the retaliation launched by Israel—ignoring human rights, the laws of war, international agreements, and conventions—after the attack by Hamas from Gaza on October 7 that also targeted civilians, has emerged as an unmissable opportunity just as Erdoğan's team was desperately looking for another success story similar to the Karabakh war!

Let us underline with a thick pen that throughout his 21-year rule, Erdoğan has converted every foreign policy topic into domestic politics by pulling it to his own side, like a carpenter's adze.

It is also necessary to emphasize the pragmatism of Erdoğan, which would make Machiavelli proud, by stating that ideological foreign policy and Sunni Islamist approaches are valid "according to the place, time, and ground."

Leaving aside the lies, misinformation, and often tragicomic news of the Palace media to highlight Erdoğan, Turkey's initial testing of the waters for mediation and then bringing the issue of "guarantorship" to the agenda carries no meaning beyond an effort to write a success story for Erdoğan in diplomacy.

While Erdoğan's affection for Hamas is no secret, the whole world knows that Israel will not accept such a mediation offer.

But even the mere mention of this proposal allows a wind to blow in favor of Erdoğan domestically.

Likewise, the issue of guarantorship is the same.

So, can the Turkish military go to Gaza?

According to Article 92 of the Constitution, the authority to permit the presence of Turkish troops in foreign countries rests exclusively with the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM).

However, this authority of the TBMM is subject to the condition of "cases deemed legitimate by international law."

In other words, Turkish troops cannot go to Gaza without a UN resolution.

Since there is no possibility of such a decision coming from the UN Security Council, these discussions do not have much practical meaning.

However, these issues are being stirred up by both AKP trolls on social media and the Palace media.

With the artificial agenda created, an attempt is being made to create an image that Erdoğan is at the forefront of solving the Gaza crisis.

Whereas neither US Secretary of State Blinken nor US President Biden requested an appointment from Ankara during their diplomatic traffic in the Middle East.

In a sense, they ignored Erdoğan.

Erdoğan sent Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the Cairo summit, which was doomed to fail from the start.

Let's say Biden had attended this summit; then we could be sure that Erdoğan would have jumped on a plane to go to Cairo just to be seen with the US President for a few minutes, even if in passing.

Whether this self-serving policy of Erdoğan will yield results domestically is difficult to predict for now.

However, as the world stands on the brink of a stormy period that will also affect Turkey, let us conclude our article by emphasizing that it is very, very important for this country to abandon ideological approaches in diplomacy and to pursue a rational foreign policy that prioritizes national interests.