Exactly one year ago, he came out and said:
"If the Swedish administration is so respectful of rights and freedoms, you must first show respect for the religious beliefs of the Republic of Turkey and Muslims. If you do not show this respect, I am sorry, but you will not see any support from us regarding NATO."
Anyone who knows him even a little—who understands his temperament, his political algorithm, his stance, and has followed what he has said and done from the past to the present—must have said after hearing these sentences that Sweden's NATO membership was absolutely guaranteed within a short time.
And that is exactly what happened.
But first, he carefully turned the issue into a matter of bargaining. He had already long since given up hope on the F-35s, but he could have nicely sold any step the US might take regarding F-16s before the local elections to the domestic audience, scratching and inflaming the nationalist vein.
He must have thought, "There's nothing better than this."
You convince Congress, and I will approve Sweden's NATO membership, he said.
However, another problem emerged. Who would take the first step?
It was a risky situation.
For instance, if Congress gave approval and the protocol for Sweden's NATO membership got stuck in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM), a situation of choosing between crises could have arisen.
Moreover, a similar situation had occurred on March 1, 2003. Or what would happen if Congress said "no" despite the approval of the TBMM?
Of course, the first step did not come from Washington.
He took this risk to avoid spoiling relations with the US before the election.
God forbid, if someone from the White House raised an eyebrow, his legitimacy would be questioned; heaven forbid, he could even lose power.
With the instruction coming from the Palace to the AKP group, the protocol regarding Sweden's NATO membership passed through the TBMM. The deputies did not really care much about the issue anyway. Only 42 percent participated in the vote.
Now, the US Congress's decision regarding the F-16s is awaited.
Up to this point, there is no situation that is very surprising or strange.
Since 2002, there have been dozens, perhaps hundreds of examples of this in foreign policy. Calling something white yesterday and black today, shaking hands today with someone he said everything he could think of yesterday, calling them "my friend," and U-turning today on those he said "this will not happen as long as this soul remains in this body"—this had already gone down in books as a political classic that would make Machiavelli proud.
But what caused astonishment was the attitude and stance of the CHP!
77 percent of the deputies who participated in the vote, that is, more than three-quarters, were opposition deputies, and the protocol received approval thanks to them—or more accurately, thanks to the CHP deputies.
Unfortunately, the CHP could not display its stance from the March 1 memorandum this time.
Yet, when he took over the leadership of the CHP by saying "change," we thought—we wanted to think—that he would follow a much more resolute policy.
Perhaps we said there could be hope after the 13-year Kılıçdaroğlu era.
But it didn't happen; he couldn't manage this. He thought that speaking by screaming until his vocal cords tore was politics. He tried to pass off empty, generic rhetoric as party opinion. He tried to curry favor with the descendants of traitors and couldn't even stand behind the decisions he made. In a short time, it became clear that he was politically illiterate.
By saying yes to Sweden's NATO membership, he showed that he understands not only foreign policy but also domestic policy not one bit.
He is heading toward disappointment at a run!
If the CHP had voted no, and then, for example, said, "A country that openly supports the PKK cannot be a NATO member; those who say yes to Sweden's entry into NATO will be under a great burden before history; you are playing into the hands of terrorist organizations; you will be responsible for every martyr news that comes from now on"...
If they had brought to the agenda that the PKK uses Swedish-made weapons, if they had stirred up the issue of Quran burning in Sweden...
If they had attacked the government over this again and again. They could have restricted the space for politics based on nationalism and opened up space for themselves.
They could have used this magnificent material to the fullest against the AKP in election rallies. They could have exposed the AKP and confused the nationalist, conservative voters who support them unconditionally, at least a little bit.
It didn't happen, they couldn't do it!
They missed a historic opportunity.
At the same time, they could have fortified the CHP voters who are experiencing learned helplessness from losing elections and are resentful, and could have energized their election campaigns through an image of a CHP that stands tall against the US.
In the end, the US will not pin a medal on the neck of the CHP Chairman just because he voted "yes" in the TBMM vote, nor will they say "Well done!" If he wanted to send a message saying "Support me instead, I can also look after your interests," and if that was his desire, he should not get his hopes up at all!
To put it mildly, the CHP will sooner or later vomit out such a mentality!
Let's come to the ten-point expert question...
He pleased the US for now, but how will he explain this to Putin?
Sweden's membership means Russia being strategically squeezed by NATO. It is not possible for Putin to accept this easily. Because for them, this is a matter of survival!
Although Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov said, "This is Turkey's sovereign decision," it would be naive, to put it mildly, to think that Russia will let this matter pass with just a few simple sentences.
If we look from another angle, if it weren't for the billions of dollars in support from Putin before May 14-28, most likely someone else would be sitting in the Presidential chair today. Because Putin opened the valves, the government was able to perform the free natural gas theater before the election.
We can guess that those in the Kremlin have a feeling of "we were betrayed" in some way, and everyone in power knows that sooner or later, Russia will put the bill for this betrayal in front of Ankara.
It is difficult to make a guess about what the cost of this bill will be for now, but let us conclude our article by saying let us not be surprised if a new S-400 order of 5-6 billion dollars, whose package will not even be opened, is placed with Russia in a short time.
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