Does the Chinese model suit Turkey?

China has been on the agenda of Turkey and the world for years with its economic development, production capacity, investment volume, and its political and diplomatic weight that has increased in parallel with these. Recently, along with the crisis experienced in the Turkish economy, the “Chinese model” has been discussed in our country. Some have argued that after the global pandemic, Europe would give up on investing in China and would shift its investments to Turkey instead. Others have emphasized that this is not possible. They pointed out that China's only trump card is not cheap labor, that it does not focus only on exports but also grows its domestic market, develops its middle class, and increases its prosperity and purchasing power. They pointed out that even if Turkey is geographically close to Europe and even if it turns this position into an advantage in transportation, it cannot be compared with China in terms of production capacity and production costs.  

So, what is the Chinese model? Can Turkey implement the Chinese model? Can Turkey and China be compared in terms of scale? To give realistic answers to all these questions, it is first useful to get to know China. 

China, officially the People's Republic of China, was founded in 1949. Its surface area is 9.6 million square kilometers, and its population is 1.4 billion. It has the second-largest population in the world after India. With an economic size reaching 17.6 trillion dollars, it is the second largest after the USA. In calculations based on purchasing power parity, it is the world's largest economy. The national income per capita is 12,700 dollars.  

China has been implementing reforms in the economy in a paced, stable, and ambitious manner since 1978. Until the global economic crisis in 2008, it grew by an average of 10 percent every year for a quarter of a century. It became known as the factory of the world. China, which is the world's largest energy consumer, is expected to become the world's largest economy in 2030. 

CHINA'S PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Let us share some data to better understand China's economic size and to discuss the Chinese model more soundly. 

China ranks first in the world with a highway length of 161 thousand kilometers. It has a railway network of 146 thousand kilometers. The number of civil airports is 241. In the cargo volume ranking, 8 of the world's top 10 ports; in the container volume ranking, 7 of the world's top 10 ports are in China. 96 percent of the world's dry cargo containers and all of the refrigerated containers are produced in China. China has been in the first place in container production for over a quarter of a century. 

As in transportation, China is also ambitious in technology, informatics, and communication. It is second after the USA in artificial intelligence research. The countries following China are South Korea, Canada, and Germany. One out of every two 5G phones in the world is sold in China. China has also surpassed Germany in the machinery industry and become the export leader. The Belt and Road Project, which China pioneered and brought to the agenda in 2013, is progressing rapidly. The number of countries and international organizations participating in the project is increasing. 

CHINA'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES AND TRADE VOLUME 

China's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded 3.2 trillion dollars. China, with its growing trade volume, is seen as a production base for many large companies, including those in the USA. 70 percent of smartphones sold in the USA are also produced in China. 

Despite the anti-China policies pursued by the USA and the global pandemic, the private sector of the USA and its allies values commercial relations with China. So much so that two-thirds of US companies, 60 percent of European companies, and 37 percent of Japanese companies are in favor of growing their business in China. China is also ambitious in regional trade. Trade between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China has increased 85-fold in 30 years, and China has become the organization's largest trading partner. Mutual investment has exceeded 310 billion dollars. China is on the list of the largest foreign trade partners of the USA and Europe. 

Another indicator of the development of commercial relations between China and Europe is the increase in freight train services. Considering that rail traffic between China and Europe began in 2011, it is seen that a lot of ground has been covered in a short time. An increase is also observed in China's direct foreign investment. The share of the Belt and Road project in China's foreign trade is increasing, trade with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries is growing, and its relations with the countries briefly referred to as BRICS are developing. The fact that China and Russia are bringing their national currencies to the fore in foreign trade and signing bilateral agreements in this direction is also receiving support in the developing world. Trade is developing. Investments made in Africa and Asia are increasing. 

According to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) data, the Chinese currency Yuan (also called Renminbi) has increased its share in global payments and entered the top five. Ahead of the Yuan are the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen. 

THE CHINESE MODEL AND SCALE DIFFERENCE  

The USA threatens its allies, as it often does, with Cold War rhetoric against China's economic, political, diplomatic, scientific, and technological development. But this method no longer works. It cannot prevent Chinese language courses from being included in the curriculum in more than 4 thousand universities in 70 countries, and 25 million people outside of China from learning Chinese. It wants to undermine China's energy supply. It cannot succeed. While China is becoming the world leader in wind energy, solar energy, and hydroelectric energy production, the USA sees how weak its energy infrastructure is in winter conditions. While China is one of the countries that sends the most university students to the USA and Europe, the number of doctoral students in China also exceeds 3 million. 

There is Chinese capital in 80 percent of the countries in the world. 80 percent of China's foreign investments are in the service sector. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), pioneered by China, also entered into force on January 1, 2022. Initiated in 2012 by ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), RCEP became the world's largest free trade area with the participation of 15 member countries. The total population of the 15 RCEP member states is 2.27 billion; their GDP is 26 trillion dollars; and their total exports are 5.2 trillion dollars. 

The reason we listed the information and statistics above is to explain that the Chinese model has its own unique dynamics and that this model is directly related to China's population, production capacity, industrial infrastructure, management style, and social structure. For this reason, it is not easy to take, adopt, and implement the Chinese model. 

What Turkey needs to do is to implement a model suitable for its own economic, political, and social requirements and conditions, a Turkish model. Turkey had achieved that in the early Republican period, during the era of Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Statism, populism, public-mindedness, planned development, production mobilization, import substitution, encouraging the use of domestic goods, and savings consciousness were the basic elements of the Turkish model. What needs to be done today is to update our own model, which draws inspiration from our own history and fits our own realities, according to the conditions and needs of today, and to bring it to life again.