The US grand strategy, Russia and China

Throughout history, there has always been competition on the geopolitical plane between sea powers and land powers. This competition is inevitable.

The US is an important, major sea power. Even if it is not in its former glory today, the UK stands out with its imperial mindset and experience, diplomatic skill, and intelligence capability. It is an island nation, a sea power. In the past, Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands stood out as important sea powers in Europe, but over time they lost their strength and could not sustain it.

To be a sea power, in addition to other elements, one must possess nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, an effective and deterrent navy, and a strong merchant marine fleet. All of this, of course, means possessing economic, technological, scientific, and industrial power. But even these are not enough. More is required.

A strong, effective, and deterrent sea power must also possess the mindset and capabilities to prevent a rival or hostile land power from attempting to become a sea power or transforming into one.

This is why the US is trying to prevent Russia from being effective in the open seas and warm waters, from showing its flag there, and from maintaining a permanent naval presence. This is one of the reasons why it has pushed Ukraine to the front against Russia and why it is fighting a proxy war with Russia in Syria. Likewise, the US effort to be effective in the Baltic Sea, the Aegean Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea is also aimed at this goal.

The US is similarly doing its best to contain China. This is the reason for the steps it has taken in the Asia-Pacific and the alliances it has spearheaded. The purpose of alliances like QUAD (US, Australia, India, Japan) and AUKUS (Australia, UK, US), which are sister organizations to NATO, is to encircle China. The US also tries to use its allies like the Philippines and South Korea in that region.

Moreover, the US is further developing its existing military relationship with Japan. The two countries are establishing a joint command structure. Japan is arming itself. The US, Japan, and Australia are establishing a joint air defense system. They are conducting exercises. The purpose of all these steps is to encircle China from the south and east, to squeeze it in its immediate vicinity, especially in the nearby seas, and to cut off its connection to the sea as much as possible.

Since the US cannot prevent the Russia-China rapprochement, it is at least trying to keep the two states from acting together in the Pacific. While trying to do this, it both shows China and Russia to its allies to scare them and encourages them to arm themselves more. Meanwhile, it also wants to strain China-ASEAN relations.

Let us provide a few figures to better understand these moves by the US...

China's population is 1.5 billion, its GDP is 18.8 trillion dollars, and its debt is 16 trillion dollars. The US population is 342 million, its GDP is 29.9 trillion dollars, and its debt is 36.6 trillion dollars. The ratio of debt to GDP in the US is 100.24 percent. This ratio was 52 percent in 1960, 35 percent in 1980, and 54 percent in 2000. When World War II ended, the US was producing half of the world's total products; today, it produces about a quarter. The largest items in the US budget are listed as health, social security, and defense. Let us recall that the defense budget is close to 1 trillion dollars. This budget is close to 40 percent of world defense spending, and it is known that total global arms spending is roughly 2.5 trillion dollars.

During the Cold War, the US had moved closer to China against the USSR. Today, it is trying to normalize its relations with Russia, at least a little, against China. However, Russia and China are not interested at all. This is because the relationship between them is strong, the US is not the old US, and the objective course of the world is very different from the Cold War years; power is shifting from the West to the East. Globalization has ended. Nationalist and protectionist tendencies are strengthening. Regional alliances are developing. Far-right and populist nationalists are on the rise in Europe. Geopolitical tensions are negatively affecting global trade. There are problems in supply chains.

The EU has little influence in these debates. It is also doubtful that it has any claim, effort, or power in this direction. The number of those who are pessimistic about the scenarios regarding the future of the EU is increasing. Will its current state continue? Will it transform into a more flexible structure? Should it be a loose confederation instead of a tight federation? Such questions are asked very often in European capitals.

On the other hand, India, which is an important power, balances between the US and Russia, has entered into a sharp competition with China, and is among the world's five largest economies, continues its policy of strategic autonomy, multilateralism, and non-alignment.

Returning to the US calculations, it has been known for years that it wants to transfer the energy resources of Central Asia and Azerbaijan to Europe via Turkey. For this reason, it wants to have full control in Georgia and ensure normalization in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations. It is trying to minimize Russia's influence in the three Caucasian republics (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia). Its calculation is to weave the three Caucasian republics between Turkey and Russia as a new Caucasian Barrier. To tie these three states tightly to the US and the Western institutions under its guidance.

Since the US is not pleased with the close relationship between China and Russia, it is looking for ways to transport energy resources from the Mediterranean, the Gulf, and Central Asia to Europe, both to drive a wedge between them and to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy. Let us not forget that having control over energy resources and routes is an important pillar of the US grand strategy. The US, which makes plan after plan to flow Central Asia's rich resources to Europe via the Caucasus and Turkey with US-patented projects, is also taking every step to block China's Belt and Road project.

In this context, it brought the India-Middle East-Europe corridor to the agenda in recent years. However, due to developments in the Middle East and Israel's barbarism, aggression, and brutality in Palestine and Lebanon, the necessary steps have not been taken so far. This project came to the agenda at a time when the Arab states in the Gulf, which are US allies, were turning toward a rapprochement with China and beginning to put some distance between themselves and the US. The India-Middle East-Europe project extends from India by sea to the United Arab Emirates, and from there by land to Saudi Arabia and Jordan. It reaches Israel from Jordan, Greece from Israel by sea, and Europe from Greece.

The US has another project that complements the India-Middle East-Europe project: the Central Asia-Caucasus-Europe corridor. Therefore, it is necessary to think about the two projects and the two corridors together. This is one of the reasons why the US is pressuring Armenia, which it has supported in every way against Azerbaijan for years, to normalize its relations with Azerbaijan as soon as possible, its increasing interest in Central Asia, and its constant interference in Georgia's internal politics. Georgia's objection to the US permanently showing its flag in the Black Sea and its developing relations with China disturb the US.

However, the US can neither prevent the rapprochement of Russia and China nor prevent them from acting together in many alliances (such as the SCO and BRICS).