The US-led order and what comes next

The US-led world order, whose rules were set by the US and whose institutions were established by the US, which took shape at the beginning of the Cold War, is collapsing. However, a new order has not yet been established. As power in the world has long been shifting from the west to the east, from the Atlantic to the Pacific and Eurasia, polarization on a global scale, across different issues and topics, is becoming more pronounced. The number of states advocating for a multipolar world order and multilateral relations is increasing rapidly.

There are adversary states that challenge the US-led world order, as defined by the US. The US cannot prevent these states from coming to the fore, strengthening, turning toward alliances among themselves, or expanding these alliances. Undoubtedly, China and Russia are at the forefront of the states it views as adversaries. Both oppose the US and support states that oppose the US, from Iran to Syria, and from North Korea to Cuba.

Russia says it is primarily fighting against the US and Europe in Ukraine. China, on the other hand, faces off against the US across a very wide spectrum, from the trade wars initiated by the US to the problems experienced in supply chains. It competes with the US in production, industry, patents, and technology. Together, Russia and China are both diversifying and strengthening their relations, increasing their cooperation from energy to trade, and leading international alliances such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. Furthermore, they act together on certain issues as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. In votes at the UN General Assembly, they ensure that a large number of countries act alongside them. This polarization was indeed seen in the votes regarding Ukraine and Israel. Moreover, when South Africa, one of the former members of BRICS, filed a lawsuit at the International Court of Justice in The Hague accusing Israel of genocide, it received support from Russia and China.

This polarization and the increasing interest in alliances such as the SCO and BRICS, along with developing trade, are leading medium-sized states, regional powers, and weaker countries to take bolder steps. They are able to stand taller against US impositions and European pressures. This is because their hands are strengthened on a global scale, their options are multiplying, and their room for maneuver is expanding. The fact that such countries are more willing and comfortable in developing regional unions among themselves, resisting US-sourced pressures, and improving their relations with China and Russia is creating a domino effect on a global scale.

The fact that the number of countries considering becoming members of BRICS is approaching 40 is proof of this. In addition to encouraging trade with national currencies, BRICS is also working on a common currency for the future, similar to the European Union's euro, as well as a common payment system. Proposals to enrich the reserves of the New Development Bank within BRICS are also noteworthy.

In short, in parallel with the decline of US influence, searches are increasing and diversifying across the world, especially in the global south. Both regional alliances and larger-scale unions and organizations are taking shape. The US, however, is struggling to accept this new situation, and this is reflected not only in its foreign policy but also in its domestic politics.