What kind of foreign policy will US President Trump pursue?

With US President Donald Trump taking the oath of office, the world is once again—after a four-year hiatus—debating what path he will follow during his second term. Trump's electoral success, his securing of a majority in both houses of Congress (the Senate and the House of Representatives), and his ability to shape his cabinet as he wishes are undoubtedly significant. However, what is more important is the objective situation of the US. Because even for a US president, a politician's power and influence are limited by the state capacity of the country they govern.

Trump's actions, words, and social media posts from four years ago are still in our memories. We also know the issues he prioritized during his election campaign. With his campaign slogan, briefly referred to as MAGA, he promises to make America great again. It is also known that he will prioritize fixing the economy, combating illegal immigration, and solving public order issues. In foreign policy, he and his appointees are quite hardline regarding Israel. If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to choose ministers for his own cabinet, he would likely have chosen those appointed by Trump. Trump, who does not take the European Union very seriously, harbors anti-China sentiment. There is a widespread belief that he will use his priority to encircle, contain, and stop China.

The regime change in Syria, the overthrow of Assad, and the rise of HTS to power have undoubtedly pleased the US greatly. The US also succeeded in turning the war in Ukraine into an opportunity to make Sweden and Finland NATO members. Israel, which along with the UK is one of the two strategic allies of the US, is very pleased with the developments in Syria. The US arms industry is also smiling.

So, in what direction will the competition between the US and China evolve? That is the real question.

There will be no hot conflict between the two states. Because both are very great powers, they know that there would be no winner in a hot conflict and that both would suffer great damage. Secondly, the two countries are countries that cooperate on a large scale economically, trade, and invest in each other. Thirdly, the two countries are already competing not directly, but indirectly, through proxy forces, in a very wide geography from Latin America to the Middle East, from Africa to Europe, and very sharply at that. There is commercial competition, competition for influence, and diplomatic competition.

When thinking about US-China relations, let's go back a bit. After the Cold War began, China-USSR relations had developed. Towards the late 1950s, they turned sour. In the 1960s, the distance between them grew significantly. The US took this as an opportunity and moved closer to China. Henry Kissinger, one of the former US secretaries of state and a wily diplomat, was influential in the development of his country's relations with China. At that time, he did not pay much attention to US diplomats who suggested improving US-USSR relations. However, the détente between the US and the USSR also coincides with those years. In 1972, the SALT 1 agreement was signed between the two countries. It was always discussed that Kissinger's extreme anti-Soviet stance was also influenced by his personal history and his Eastern European roots (he was born in Germany in 1923). In the end, when US President Nixon visited China in 1972, Kissinger was his national security advisor, and he served as secretary of state between 1973 and 1977.

The US has experienced the following dilemma when it comes to China: it has wavered between encouraging and supporting China to adopt a market economy and integrate with world markets, and fearing China and trying to stop or contain it. At the point reached today, there is a US that fears China. There is a US that is concerned about the institutions led by China (such as BRICS and the SCO) and the projects it leads (such as the Belt and Road Initiative). There is a US that is intimidated by China's investments in Africa, the relations it has developed with Latin American countries, its rapprochement with Arab and Islamic countries, its increasing influence in the Middle East, and its trade with Europe.

It is not just China's economy, but its rapidly developing soft power, multi-faceted diplomatic initiatives, scientific and technological breakthroughs, production capacity, and military that worry the US. The US views China both as a rival, a threat, and a state challenging US hegemony, and is aware of how intertwined the two countries' economies are. Because there is a debtor-creditor, customer-seller, consumer-producer relationship between the US and China. The American public is among the largest customers of Chinese goods. China is the state with the most students studying in US universities. The most famous US companies have their products made in factories in China. The two countries have huge economic investments in each other.

Although the US tries to involve its allies such as Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia against China, and establishes new alliances around China that are like siblings to NATO to encircle China, it cannot achieve what it wants. For this reason, it tries to pull India—which has balanced relations with the US, the UK, and Russia, but has historically had significant problems with China—to its side by any means necessary. It is striving to fully bring India to its side, which is not in the Belt and Road Initiative and is investing heavily in the Chabahar port in Iran against the Gwadar port in Pakistan, where China has made a large investment. However, it is not fully finding what it hopes for.

These two ports, Gwadar and Chabahar, are important. Because they are ports close to each other. They open to the same seas. In this context, India is also trying to improve its relations with Afghanistan and invest in this country. Because without Afghanistan, it is impossible for it to reach Central Asia. For this reason, the India-Pakistan and India-China competition over Afghanistan is sharpening.

The US is trying to exploit the fact that India has historical problems with Pakistan and China and feels encircled between these two countries. India, which has good relations with Russia and Iran, does not give the US the answers it expects, as it is a country large and experienced enough not to fall for these games of the US. As the world's most populous country, a nuclear power, and a developing economy, India follows a balanced path in foreign policy.

It is also not realistic to expect the US to withdraw from the Middle East. Because there are many reasons for the US to be in the Middle East, primarily the security of Israel.

In summary, regardless of US President Trump's personality, due to the imperialist policies of the US, very difficult days await the world, our region, and our country.