World War III scenarios and the US

In recent days, the number of people concerned that a World War III might break out is rising rapidly. There are many who believe that the signs and omens of such a war are multiplying. So, is this possibility really as strong as feared? How right are those who say we are in the midst of a geopolitical storm and that global chaos is at the door?

Looking at history, it is seen that in the last 5 thousand years, the total time spent without war is roughly 270 – 290 years. In the last 300 years, the total time spent without war is only 26 days. Yes, only 26 days.

Therefore, history shows us that in international relations and foreign policy, there have always been tensions, conflicts, and wars, whether large or small, regional or global.

We know this: As its hegemony erodes and its ecological dominance weakens, the US is not a state that possesses many and varied tools against countries (including its European allies) that are moving away from it, seeking autonomy against US tutelage, and wanting to act relatively more independently. Its power is not unlimited. Its resources are not infinite. Against such countries, the political, economic, military, and diplomatic trump cards it uses to keep them in line with the US are not as effective as they once were.

While the US's strongest trump cards are its military, the dollar, and NATO, many countries in the world are tending to move away from the dollar in their foreign trade. They are turning toward trade in their national currencies. It is significant, of course, that a state like Saudi Arabia, which is a US ally, is among these countries. As might be expected, China and Russia are also supporting and encouraging this trend. That is why the Chinese currency, the yuan (Renminbi), is increasing its share of the pie as a reserve currency in global trade.

Likewise, BRICS, which counts China and Russia among its founders, accounts for 45 percent of the world's population and approximately 30 percent of the global economy. Six of the world's 9 largest oil producers are also members of BRICS. In calculations based on purchasing power parity, BRICS's share is approaching 38 percent. The share of G7 countries remains at 30 percent. In industrial production, BRICS holds a 38 percent share, ahead of the G7, which has a 30.5 percent share. BRICS, founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and which soon after made the Republic of South Africa a member—with its name formed from the initials of these countries in English—took a significant step toward expansion by making Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates members at the beginning of 2024.

Let us also not forget that none of the US-patented projects like the "Islamic NATO," "Arab NATO," or "Middle East NATO" ever materialized, but the SCO and BRICS have expanded with new members. This expansion was managed not only for political, geopolitical, strategic, and diplomatic reasons or security requirements, but also for economic reasons, especially within the scope of BRICS.

Therefore, instead of exercising our minds with talk of World War III having started, being about to start, or being imminent, it is useful to look at the dimensions of foreign trade that countries conduct with one another and their search for regional alliances, and to consider whether the US, with its diminishing power, can afford to risk such a war.