Russia's new general offensive

Russia's new general offensive, which was expected to begin before the summer following its successes during the winter months, took place on May 10 in the Kharkiv Region (Kharkiv Oblast).

Although Ukraine successfully repelled the initial Russian attacks in 2022, the Russians regrouped over time. The Russians abandoned their strategy of aiming for decisive results through rapid offensives and shifted to a style of warfare focused on a long-term war of attrition, thereby managing to regain the superiority they had lost against Ukraine in 2022.

Russia began to reap the fruits of its ongoing war of attrition strategy starting in the winter of 2024. Russian forces gradually wore down the Ukrainian forces, which were trying to hold a front line longer than 1000 kilometers, using artillery bombardment and tactics based on slow but steady advances on six different fronts: Robotyne, Kherson, Novopavlivka, Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Bakhmut. Following the fall of Avdiivka in February, a general consensus emerged that the Ukrainian Army had reached its limit and would not be able to keep up with a newly opened front.

The success Russia has achieved so far in its offensive toward the city of Kharkiv confirms this view. The Russians managed to capture a significant amount of territory in a short time without encountering notable resistance. The reserves sent to the region by the Ukrainian Army were, as expected, quite weak, and although the momentum of the Russian offensive is currently slowing down, no significant Ukrainian resistance is expected in this region in the future. Furthermore, since the Ukrainian reserves dispatched to the region were units withdrawn from already active fronts, other fronts have also become more vulnerable to Russian attacks.

The exhaustion of the Ukrainian Army and the failure of the Ukrainian administration to increase the number of troops by conscripting more citizens constitute the primary factor in Russian success. In addition, America's reluctance to provide military aid to Ukraine (although the US Senate approved a 61 billion dollar aid package to be sent to Ukraine on April 24, this aid has not yet reached Ukraine) and Europe's slowness in sending aid are among the reasons for the desperation Ukraine faces against the Russians.

Although the Russian advance has partially slowed and the city of Kharkiv has not yet fallen, there is an undeniable Russian superiority. In the coming days, the Russians may try to capture Kharkiv with all their might or attempt to penetrate deeper into Ukrainian territory while keeping Kharkiv under artillery bombardment. In addition to these, a surprise move such as a new general offensive on other already weakened fronts is also among the options.

Russia's troop losses on the seven fronts where it is currently actively conducting attacks are still higher than the losses suffered by Ukrainian forces. However, while the Russians are in a position to replace far more than the number of soldiers they have lost, Ukrainian forces are having great difficulty replacing the soldiers they have lost.

The Ukrainian Parliament extended the law on the conscription of men aged 18 to 60 fit for war and the ban on them leaving the country for another 90 days on May 14. In April, a law was passed by parliament to increase penalties for draft dodgers and to cancel the demobilization of soldiers who have completed their 36-month service period. However, despite the mobilization law, it cannot be said that the vast majority of the Ukrainian public is very willing to be a part of the war, and in connection with this, the Ukrainian Army is currently very far from reaching its targeted personnel numbers. The Russians, on the other hand, are conducting a much more successful mobilization, and the Russian Army has the capacity to send far more soldiers to the war than it loses.

The 61 billion dollar military aid package approved by the United States Senate and the increasing military aid from Europe will at least somewhat improve the negative picture Ukraine is in the near future. However, without solving the personnel problem in the Ukrainian Army, it does not seem very possible for them to show significant resistance against the Russians in the coming days.