If Atatürk had lived 10 more years

Since President Erdoğan has just constructed a sentence starting with "If Atatürk had lived 10 more years," it is worth reflecting on this: what was the economy like during the Atatürk era, what policies did he follow, what kind of economy did he leave behind when he passed away, and what would have happened if he had lived for another 10 years? Let us take a look together.

Only a genius like Mustafa Kemal Atatürk could have rebuilt a country that had been razed to the ground in the dark steppes of Anatolia, a country that could not produce enough wheat for itself, imported sugar, and had no industry. Indeed, no Republican government established after him has ever matched the pace of development and growth achieved during the 1923-1938 period. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and the Kemalist cadre, who founded the Republic of Turkey by successfully completing the National War of Independence in Anatolia against both imperialist states and internal reactionaries and collaborators, believed that true liberation was only possible through economic independence. They viewed the country's economic and financial independence as a matter of honor and integrity, and acted accordingly.

As early as January 1923, just 3 months after Mustafa Kemal Atatürk had driven the imperialists out of our Anatolia, he pointed to the goal by saying, "The State of Turkey will be an Economic State." He did this even before the peace treaty was signed and the Republic was proclaimed.

At the end of the First World War, European countries were experiencing very severe economic crises. In the years following the end of the war, prices in England rose by 242% and in France by 357%. Germany experienced hyperinflation. In 1923, 1 US Dollar could be bought with 500 billion German Marks. The first national income accounting plan in Turkey was made in 1929. Yet, even today, we still cannot calculate national income correctly. In 1931, the preparation of a development plan began for the first time in the world, and the first Industrial Development Plan was prepared for the years 1933-1938, and the 2nd Industrial Development Plan was prepared for the years 1938-1944 under the personal direction of Atatürk. To summarize briefly, the main objective of the 1st Industrial Development Plan was achieved: "Domestic consumer goods that exist in Turkey but are not produced for consumption and are imported from abroad are not to be imported, but produced within the country." For this purpose, the Kayseri, Nazilli, Ereğli, and Bakırköy textile factories, Malatya yarn and weaving factories, Iğdır yarn factories, Karabük iron and steel, İzmir paper, Bursa merino, Kütahya Ceramics, Paşabahçe bottle and glass, Keçiborlu sulfur, Gemlik artificial silk, İzmit superphosphate, alcohol, rose oil, and cement industrial facilities, as well as the Turkish Sugar Factories, the Soil Products Office, Sümerbank, and Etibank were established during the 1st Industrial Development Period. Have those who have been in power for 23 years been able to build even one of these facilities or factories? No. They only sell and destroy.

Between 1933 and 1938, a development plan was implemented in Turkey for the first time in the world under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. With the first five-year industrial development plan, the state entered into economic activities and state-run enterprises began. Thanks to the economic policy followed by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, important steps were taken in the name of industrialization by staying outside the 1929 economic crisis. With this planning, the main goal in Turkey was to produce the basic industrial goods needed through public enterprises, and when the plan was prepared, no external resources were foreseen, and the plan was carried out with domestic resources.

The main goal in Atatürk's fiscal policy was to have a balanced budget and a budget surplus. When the estimated and finalized amounts for budget expenditures and revenues for the 1923-1929 period are examined, although it was estimated that the 1923-29 budgets would have a deficit, the 1926-28 budgets would be balanced, and the 1925, 27, and 29 budgets would have a surplus, except for 1925, the final revenues and final expenditures throughout the period were higher than the estimated rates, both in absolute terms and as a ratio to GNP. The budgets of the new Republic of Turkey generally had a surplus in the early years. Because: waste and corruption were not permitted, and there was no compromise on the principle of austerity.

While one British pound was on average 605 kuruş in 1921, it was at the level of 616 kuruş in 1938. The great leader Mustafa Kemal, who wanted the national currency to pass into the hands of the Turks, distributed the shares of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which he founded in 1930, to Turkish banks and state officials. While the central bank had 6,127 kilograms of gold in 1931, this increased to 26,190 kilograms in 1938. He always kept the state budget balanced, provided a surplus when necessary, and never allowed price stability to be disrupted.

According to Mustafa Kemal Atatürk: "Turkish banking should be under the management and ownership of Turks." He also did not find it appropriate for the vast majority of Turkish deposits to be in the hands of foreign banks. It is very interesting that while 68% of deposits were in the hands of foreign banks and 32% in the hands of national banks in 1920, 81% of deposits were in national banks and 19% in foreign banks in 1937. Atatürk made investments without falling into inflation, and by encouraging his people to save, he initiated the "National Economy and Savings Move" and the Domestic Goods Week for this purpose.

While the per capita national income was 45 dollars in the 1923-38 period, it rose to 88 dollars in 1938. While one German mark was 44 kuruş in 1924, it was 46 kuruş in 1938.

Nations that do not value economic science and its rules always prepare their own end. The most fundamental element of Atatürk's economic understanding, who was aware of this, is economic balance and stability.

It is possible to group this policy into 4 main categories:

1. Anti-inflationary monetary-credit policy that protects the value of the Turkish Lira

2. Balanced budget policy based on real public resources

3. Foreign trade policy without devaluation

4. Planned development policy that ensures the effective use of national resources

As a result of the economic policy implemented by Atatürk, the GNP grew by an average of over 10% in the 15-year period. Stability in domestic prices and the value of money was achieved with the successfully implemented anti-inflationary budget and monetary policy. In foreign trade, a constant surplus was achieved. The great leader Mustafa Kemal Atatürk made the Republic of Turkey, which he created from nothing in 15 years, the most respected country in the world, and made it the 11th largest economy and state in the world.

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, as a great leader who started Turkey's modernization process, strove in his short life to build the economy on contemporary foundations as well. To summarize briefly what Atatürk left us:

1. Gross National Product (GNP): At the end of the 1930s, Turkey's Gross National Product was at the level of approximately 1.8 billion TL. During this period, the annual growth rate of GNP was around 14%.

2. Industrial Production: Industrial production grew by an average of 8% in the 1930s. Domestic production was increased with factories in sectors such as textiles, mining, and food.

3. Foreign Trade: In 1938, Turkey's total exports were approximately 150 million dollars, and imports were approximately 100 million dollars. Turkey aimed to increase its foreign trade revenues, especially through agricultural products and mineral exports.

4. Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves: In 1938, the foreign exchange and gold reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey had reached approximately 26.6 million TL. These reserves are an important guarantee to protect the economy during crisis periods.

5. Industrial Institutions: A total of nearly 100 industrial facilities were established by the end of the 1930s. These factories were aimed at meeting the country's basic industrial needs. Organizations such as Sümerbank and Etibank operated as pioneering industrial enterprises.

6. Agricultural Productivity and Number of Tractors: As a result of modernization efforts in the agricultural sector, the number of tractors exceeded 1,000, and the process of mechanization in agriculture began.

7. Unemployment Rate and Employment: In 1938, unemployment was almost non-existent. The employment rate increased thanks to the state's public sector investments. Tens of thousands of people were employed in the public sector.

8. Public Debt: After the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, the debts of the Ottoman Empire were taken over and payments were started. By 1938, a large portion of these debts had been paid off, and Turkey's external debt had decreased.

When he passed away in 1938, Turkey was a country that had embarked on the struggle to develop from the ruins of the War of Independence and to build an independent economy. Atatürk knew very well that the principle of full independence could not be possible without economic independence. That is why he always saw economic development as one of the most important issues for the country's future. If Atatürk had lived 10 more years, it was very likely that deep and lasting changes in Turkey's economy would have gained momentum.

While Turkey was trying to overcome the effects of the global economic depression in the 1930s, Atatürk had rethought the country's economic strategy and put the principle of Statism into practice. This principle envisaged the state's active participation in the economy for the establishment of domestic industry, the modernization of agriculture, and making the workforce more efficient. Sümerbank, Etibank, and various industrial facilities established under Atatürk's leadership were bold steps taken on the path to strengthening the economy. However, with his passing in 1938, difficulties were experienced regarding the continuity and completion of these breakthroughs. If he had lived 10 more years, he could have provided more support for the consolidation of these institutions and the increase of their production capacities, making Turkey a self-sufficient country in industry and agriculture.

Atatürk's survival could have created an important opportunity for the deepening of agricultural reforms and the increase of the peasant's production power. In line with the goal of modernizing agriculture, he could have carried out more comprehensive land reforms and accelerated rural development by providing incentives for farmers. Thus, the peasant would have been empowered not only for production but also to contribute to the country's industrialization goals. Considering the importance Atatürk placed on agriculture, a serious transformation in agriculture could have been achieved within these 10 years through education and production centers such as village institutes.

The importance of industrialization for Atatürk was great; because according to his vision, industrialization was the foundation of national independence. If he had lived 10 more years, Turkey's heavy industry investments would have accelerated, and perhaps steps would have been taken to pave the way for exports by reducing dependence on imports in sectors such as iron and steel, mining, and textiles through domestic production. Under Atatürk's leadership, Turkey could have developed its industry with its own engineers and workforce, and could have developed independently of foreign capital.

Another of Atatürk's foresight regarding the economy was the strengthening of the financial system. Along with the support of institutions such as the Central Bank, ensuring fiscal discipline and making budget management effective carried the goal of placing the economy on a more solid foundation. If he had lived 10 more years, he could have taken major steps in areas such as keeping inflation under control and protecting the value of the currency by ensuring stability in Turkey's financial structure.

Atatürk living 10 more years could have also ensured that important developments took place in foreign trade policies. Perhaps Turkey could have achieved a more independent and powerful position in trade by developing its economic relations with neighboring countries and a wider geography. In this way, Turkey could have become a country that is self-confident in the world economy, uses its resources efficiently, and stands on its own feet.

If Atatürk had lived 10 more years, the Turkish economy could have transformed into a power that not only grew in numbers but also raised the welfare of the people, developed its workforce, and trusted and competed in its own industry. As Turkey progressed on the path to achieving its economic independence, Atatürk's words, "independence is my character," would have been felt more deeply in every field of the economy. Such a Turkey would have risen to the top 5 as a powerful, modern country with a say in the international arena.

If Mustafa Kemal Atatürk had lived 10 more years, it was likely that steps and decisions that would leave unforgettable marks on Turkey's future would have been taken. The depth and vision in Atatürk's world of ideas had already enabled him to lay the foundations of modern Turkey in his short life. However, living 10 more years would have meant the consolidation of revolutions and the country's settling on a more solid ground on the path of development.

10 more years to be carried out under Atatürk's leadership could have brought about major developments, especially in the fields of education, science, and industry. Atatürk, who closely followed developments around the world at that time, could have led major projects for Turkey to become self-sufficient in the fields of industrialization, science, and technology. The strengthening of the country's economy and the development of domestic industry would have enabled Turkey to gain a more effective and independent position in the international arena.

Furthermore, education and science, one of the issues Atatürk cared about most, could have undergone a much more deep-rooted transformation under his leadership. Perhaps the scope of village institutes could have been expanded even further to ensure that individuals from all walks of life met with science and art, and contemporary educational principles could have been adopted more deeply. Turkish women would have been the most respected women in the world. Turkish universities would have been in the top 5 in the world. Now we do not have a university in the top 500. In a possible 10 years, along with Atatürk's trust in Turkish youth, steps could have been taken to train new generations to take a more active role in the country's administration. This would have allowed the culture of democracy to take deeper roots.

In foreign policy, thanks to the importance Atatürk placed on peace and independence, it could have been possible for Turkey to be positioned as a stronger balancing element in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Europe. In line with his principle of "Peace at home, peace in the world," Turkey's mediator role in regional problems could have been assumed more effectively, and friendly relations with neighboring countries could have been strengthened. Thus, Turkey would have been recognized as a more stable and reliable country both at home and abroad.

By Atatürk living 10 more years, the impact of the steps he took on issues such as the development of women's rights, the strengthening of the legal system, and the deepening of the understanding of secularism could have formed a stronger foundation for social peace. Women being more active in education, business life, and social life would have become an indispensable part of Turkey's modernization process.

If Atatürk had lived 10 more years, not only Turkey but the whole world would have benefited from his visionary leadership and peaceful policies, and peace, brotherhood, and love would have prevailed in the world. The Republic of Turkey would have been a leader, developed, industrialized, and a great country in the top 5 in the world.