A frightening parallel: Who might push Turkey toward disaster?

We are in no position to take seriously the words of retired prime ministers who are caricatures of professors, mocked as "little brother-in-law." The situation is truly profound: Turkey is being pushed toward a certain fate, not by history, but along the fault lines of a war-torn geography that is closing in on us step by step.

Yet, we are the keystone of this geography, or perhaps a very heavy and crucial connecting cable. Any upheaval here will not resemble the chaos in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Caucasus, or Libya.

In other words, an adventure orchestrated in the Black Sea could bury Turkey in both history and geography. This must be read as if we are about to be pushed into an abyss by a new Goeben and Breslau-style provocation at any moment.

The parallel between them is frightening.

The parallel between Turkey and Germany is frightening.

How so?

There are signals that Ankara, which is showing signs of participating more actively in the front opening toward Russia, will follow a path in the shadow of Berlin, which has been utilizing this front since 2014. That is the case.

However, this path is very dangerous. It is reminiscent of 1914. As defined in an enriching analysis by Engin Solakoğlu, who has opened a brand-new window in foreign news commentary with his content and style, Turkey could be the victim of the "third front taking shape in the Black Sea."

As we said, we could be buried there.

The fact that Turkey and Germany, even after a century, are starting to sing from the same hymn sheet in a war on a Eurasian scale should raise all our alarms. Aside from Turkey's own crisis, the conditions under which Germany, the hegemonic power of Europe, is now beginning to feel the signals of an economic crisis in its politics as well, could trigger any kind of provocation and the subsequent disaster.

Let us look at "Greater Germany," which has begun to seek "Lebensraum"—even if through NATO—because it also feels its own borders. In this imperial state, which concerns Turkey primarily, there is a political crisis that cannot yet be admitted "out loud." According to public opinion polls, its chancellor has long since fallen from power. But more important than the potentially short-lived chancellorship adventure of Friedrich Merz is the crisis in the economy. Merz is officially fanning the flames in both the economy and politics. He has no other choice...

Does Merz, who is pushing for hundreds of billions of euros in savings on social security spending not just in Germany but in the entire EU, not know that he is upsetting all the balances? And what are we to say about the cadres who will spend amounts that make these billions look like nothing on rearmament and borrow money to do so?

This is a crisis that is being experienced but not admitted. A crisis that is shaking giant companies. And that is where the danger lies. They "might attempt" a political/military adventure just like in the past.

In Germany, which has earned its identity as Europe's strongest economy as an automotive and technology "success," there is a crisis spreading from Volkswagen to Daimler, Mercedes, and from them to BMW and all energy-intensive sub-industries. As is known, what is truly important in the German economy are these sub-industries. Production rises on their backs. And so does employment... We are on the verge of days when hundreds of thousands of workers could be laid off.

Berlin is in the hands of cadres who see the solution to the crisis that emerged after the Nord Stream was blown up and they were cut off from Russian energy in militarizing society and the economy, and who think they can overcome the recession and energy bottleneck by producing weapons. These are the people who, with their Russian hostility that is about to spiral out of control, could burden Turkey with an adventure it cannot handle.

They have done it before. Is there any guarantee that they won't do it again, of course under new conditions and with new actors/factors? Anything can happen.

For a long time now, politics in Germany has been moving toward becoming a center of problems rather than a center of solutions.

If there were an election right now, the SPD, once a ruling party, would come in fifth. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which we could call far-right or "radical Christian democrat," is in first place. The gap between the Christian democrats (CDU and CSU) and the fascistic AfD has exceeded 6 points. The AfD coming out in first place by a landslide in the state elections to be held in the east of the country in September and forming local governments could turn everything upside down.

The situation is so dire that the first attacks have even begun in the media to lower the famous 5 percent election threshold, out of fear that the political scene will be turned upside down and thus open the way for the AfD to take power. They might lower the threshold.

Aside from the justifications and consequences of this, wouldn't lowering this election threshold, which has been seen as the anchor of "German stability" for decades, also be a declaration that the country has fallen into the lap of a very severe political crisis?

It is.

Does it have anything to do with us?

If Turkey does not undergo a radical regime change and establish a new, egalitarian republic, it cannot find relief and, unfortunately, cannot maintain its integrity. No one in Europe is continuing the German cunning of 1914, either. In other words, Berlin, which at that time formed a front against the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire, is nowhere near that 112 years later. Turkey is too big for the EU. And unnecessarily big for Germany. Those who want it to be partitioned are in the majority.

Can Berlin, which is in the midst of a rearmament drive that will push France's military superiority into the background, and which is simultaneously proposing such ruthless EU cuts that they would make farmers in France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium jump out of their skins, push Turkey into adventures it cannot handle amidst all these troubles?

Why not?

Centrifugal forces have begun to be effective in Europe. Let's put it that way. Its shadow falls upon us.

Is it just a shadow?