Stock markets before the storm and 'fund-manager Turkey'

The system is becoming increasingly immovable with each passing day. However, the situation in these “very democratic countries and their markets” is not encouraging at all.

A few days ago, a weekly German stock market magazine, which belongs to Axel Springer, one of the largest media organizations in Germany and Europe, made the approaching storm its cover story. According to “Euro am Sonntag,” which published a cover dossier based on the latest research and reports from the OECD and insurance giant Allianz, a collapse of up to 15 percent awaits the stock markets.

This headline has not yet been highlighted in this way in other media. But the OECD report that forms the basis of this assessment is extremely current. The reports from global financial giants Allianz and Allianz Trade are as well.

In other words, while Turkey is shaking violently in the earthquake of fund thieves, European stock markets—which can also be read as the world system—are also expecting an earthquake.

The world is being pushed into uncertainty.

These developments are parallel to a madness of armament on a terrifying scale.

It is not just Turkey; a disaster scenario is unfolding internally in the “most democratic countries” that those who pass for intellectuals admire so much. It is marching toward a new and fascist right-wing government that will bury the classical right.

There is no socialist resistance to be found anyway.

SHOCKS ONE AFTER ANOTHER

The food shock and consequently inflation... Experts who are well-off seem inclined to blame it on “El Niño,” a climate event that we can briefly define as “irregular warming in the Pacific,” but the role of the war in Ukraine in this pruning of food products is much greater: The decline in supply is being explained with the word shock. According to Allianz research, as stated in the magazine's cover story, this climate phenomenon could create a welfare loss of 450 billion dollars. For this reason alone, it could provide an additional 0.42 percent increase to global inflation, and this increase could reach 0.65 percent for food products. They are opening the door from these points.

It must be to avoid causing a stir.

The OECD interim report also points out that 2027 will be the hottest year in history. The reminders that rains will turn into floods, and that storms, extreme heat, water shortages, forest fires, and a sharp decline in yields—especially in grain, corn, rice, and soy—will lead to price increases in food products, present a very dark picture. When this is combined with energy shortages, millions of consumers, especially those relying on artificial fertilizers, face expensive food and high fuel prices.

Will it happen?

We cannot know the timing. But it is certain that a storm is approaching. It is also certain that it is very close.

October always proceeds with a fear of collapse in world stock markets, it gives such signals, as is well known.

However, the issue cannot be explained by El Niño and the agricultural decline it represents at all.

The OECD report, which focuses on energy markets clogged due to Ukraine, is perhaps more reasonable. Conflicts in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait are worrying those at the head of the world system about the price of a barrel of oil (“Brent”) potentially rising to 120 dollars. No, the problem is not the wealth that price would create; they are afraid of the global disintegration of the “establishment”...

Such a possibility...

In summary, the OECD's warning of a decline and even a collapse in stock markets is rising on the back of El Niño, energy bottlenecks, high inflation, and rising interest rates.

DIFFICULT QUESTIONS BEFORE THE STORM

Here is the point we want to reach: A collapsing Turkey!

In the midst of such an expectation of collapse, what would be the result if the Turkish economy were to collapse suddenly along with the fund siphoning and declare insolvency?

Would it strengthen the system, or would it accelerate the collapse?

Probably the latter.

About 5 years ago, a German economist, Prof. Dr. Christian Kreiß, published a detailed series of analyses and pointed out even then that a dark future awaited the system, and that in this picture, Turkey would have a special function like the role of Lehman Brothers in the 2008 crisis. With these words:

“Turkey's debts today could play a role like the Lehman debts in 2008 and could be the trigger for the second financial crisis since the millennium. However, as mentioned before, this final crisis will be much more severe than the first. I think the storm is coming, perhaps even a 'perfect storm'.”

We can go into details later, if necessary.

It is clear that a major devaluation in Turkey, which seems inevitable within this system, will not bring relief to the country's economy; on the contrary, it will create a major insolvency. Turkey's foreign currency-denominated debts are enough to shake the system...

In such a situation, will the world's rulers save Turkey, or will they pull the plug and abandon it?

The flag-bearers of the “III. Abdulhamid regime,” which also includes the opposition—or rather, primarily the opposition—that is sworn not to cause trouble, all seem determined to turn Turkey and—if necessary—the world system upside down. They are doing this perhaps not out of malice, but for the sake of 'good,' and by sharing terrible thefts for their selfish interests, they are pushing the country into darkness with the belief that “the world system will not allow Turkey to sink, as that would be shooting itself in the foot.” This political geography will disintegrate...

The issue we need to work on is this: If Turkey enters into insolvency, will it dump the already impending storm onto the world system with even more violence and proximity, or can it save itself?

Turkey is going to a terrible place, it is being pushed there, and it is dragging the world along with it...

The unforgettable İlhan Selçuk loved us socialists, but he always looked for middle-ground solutions according to his own mind. He warned, “Are you aware of the disaster?” and departed from this world.

Let us put aside the communists who consider themselves responsible for Turkey, for the future of the Turkish working people and republican enlightenment—they are already there—but where are the “left Kemalists,” whom we could call “people's Kemalism,” and even the “left Kurdism” that is an essential element of this country?

Where are the Republicans?

Are we going to be buried in the Yugoslavia-Syria line?

Won't it be too late when that line swallows us?