Very dangerous games: The system is about to go off the rails

The fates of Turkey and Germany are more deeply intertwined than is commonly thought. These are states that exist in parallel universes, in different locations, but inevitably 'project' onto one another. A fracture in one is inevitably and quickly reflected in the other. We frequently draw attention to this.

Let us begin with an interesting yet frightening question for now: "Will Europe emerge from this chaos as a world power under Germany's leadership?"

This question is posed in a new article by Prof. Dr. Frank Deppe, a retired professor and a brilliant student of Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Abendroth, an influential leftist political philosopher from the 1950s to the 1990s and a founding father of the Marburg School. At 84, this political scientist, who continues his intellectual production, analyzes our chaotic agenda while also reminding us of the impasse in which 'European Germany' is treading water.

He is not wrong. Germany, even if one prefers not to see it, is bubbling over. This weekend, there is a local election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, which has a population of over 2 million. This election is for the state parliament. All of Europe has its eyes on this small state. The question being sought is whether the AfD (Alternative for Germany), labeled as far-right, can reach a vote share that would allow it to form a government on its own. Recent public opinion polls show that the AfD is unrivaled, but still needs one or two more percentage points to form a state government alone.

It might happen, or it might not. But there is a new—according to some—"Nazi Party" on the agenda that is considered certain to garner at least 42 percent of the votes.

Not quite.

The AfD can be considered an increasingly radicalizing Christian democratic party. It undoubtedly has a fascistic side.

IF BERLIN COUGHS, DOES ANKARA CATCH A COLD?

Developments in Germany are a matter of "arbitrariness" that concerns Turkey very closely. This old word has nothing to do with pleasure; it has to do with defining the current situation. A growing Germany is the most important external connection center for Turkey in the world system. This is entirely the case in Europe and NATO. Turkish diplomacy knows this well, too.

How would the rise of the AfD reflect on Turkey? It would not make a huge difference.

The AfD, which currently includes neo-fascist channels that are being reined in for now, differs from the conventional right—that is, the entire political class—on only two issues.

One: Its policy toward the "Bio-German" masses, who are poor and have no way out—also called the "precariat" in a somewhat inaccurate conceptualization—is a bit spicy. To keep the "native precariat" on edge, they are attacking immigrants. They propose to block immigrants, especially those who have been hit by global crises and are fleeing poverty to take refuge in the German social security system, and to end their presence in the country in violation of the law: The AfD propagates "anti-immigrant sentiment." In this way, it is building a mass base within the majority society.

Two: On the other hand, it addresses the industrial capital, especially the manufacturing industry, which is in a difficult situation, toward the ruling layers. It proposes ending the tension and conflict with Russia and purchasing energy from there again. The AfD thinks it can protect domestic heavy industry production this way. But the news coming in, especially from VW, is terrible. The collapse and flight cannot be stopped.

With these differences, the AfD is a neoliberal-obsessed right-wing party, but it is currently the country's largest party. Is the situation any different in France, Italy, and England?

The established system, which is finance-heavy, is determined to demonize this party, which is trying to spread the belief that accumulated economic problems can be solved by also scratching at German nationalism to gain a mass base.

In fact, for sectors such as machinery manufacturing, automotive, chemicals, medicine, and bio-technologies, "moving factories abroad" due to the lack of expensive energy is the only reasonable solution. In Germany, the cost of 1 kilowatt-hour of energy is 35.6 cents gross in euros. Italy and England are not very different. France can use energy 12 cents cheaper than Germany. In the US, the same amount of energy is 18.3 cents, in China 6.7 cents, and in India 6.3 cents. It is also relatively very low in Turkey: 6.6 cents. (One cannot help but wonder if the investments that will flee abroad will also head toward the favorable energy inputs in Turkey. But they will not come.)

Anyway...

WE HAVE BOARDED A SIGN, WE ARE GOING...

It is impossible for energy-intensive heavy industry production in Germany not to flee abroad in the face of this picture. Here, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's determination to build Europe's largest conventional army also gains additional meaning. These flights need to be protected, and capital returns need to be guaranteed on a large scale with scattered investments.

What can you protect this with other than military power?

No one has heard the AfD object to the current government's arms frenzy.

However, anti-Russian militarization could mess up Europe badly. Mutual consulates and cultural centers are now being closed. Targets are being mentioned. Things are bad.

We must say one thing clearly: Apart from the BSW and Oskar Lafontaine and Sahra Wagenknecht—to whom it is important for the sake of fairness to add Sevim Dağdelen—there is no one opposing the madness of arming and militarizing societies. Intense efforts are being made to ensure this team stays below the 5 percent threshold in the elections.

Well.

On Sunday night, September 6, Europe's eyes will be on Germany. They will look at the tail of the ox being pulled, to see what state it is in. But the tail of that ox might actually break in the elections in the two eastern states on September 20.

If it breaks, it will shake Turkey first.

Why?

Could it be because Turkey-Germany ties are more intertwined than they are with any other country/state?

We drew attention to the "chaos" and the ambition of European Germany to become a world power in the introduction. That "chaos" could get completely out of hand. It could become unmanageable. Such calculations have caused terrible things on this old continent, and there has been no counter-force to illuminate this corridor of fear for 36 years.

We have boarded a sign, we are going...