A new Turkish state in Europe?

This is the headline of many news reports and commentaries that have caught my attention in the Turkish press. Which "Turkish state" is seeking independence? I was not surprised. It is the Gagauz Autonomous Region of the Republic of Moldova. Despite the fact that almost 2 and a half years have passed since the start of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the war continues to affect the countries in the region.

WHAT IS GAGAUZIA? WHO ARE THE GAGAUZ? 

The Gagauz are a small Orthodox Christian Turkic community with a long and interesting history. Because the Gagauz never had a state of their own, they suffered as a people throughout history. After 1812, the Gagauz people in Bessarabia (present-day territory of the Republic of Moldova) faced a forced Russification process for the first time, encouraged by the authorities of the Russian Empire. The effects of this Russification process, which lasted more than two centuries, are still visible today. In 1994, the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova recognized the autonomy of the Gagauz people, and the region's special status was enshrined in the Constitution. The population is approximately 121 thousand people. They speak Russian predominantly.

WHY DOES GAGAUZIA WANT INDEPENDENCE? 

Gagauzia's local authorities have always had a tense relationship with Moldova's central authorities. This relationship has worsened since the summer of last year, when Evghenia Gutul, the candidate of the Shor Party, won the elections in Gagauzia. The leader of the Shor Party is the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, a former member of the Moldovan Parliament. He was sentenced to 15 years in prison in the "Theft of the Century" case in Moldova and is currently hiding in Russia and Israel. The current Governor of Gagauzia, Gutul, has recently made several visits to Moscow and met with Vladimir Putin in person. On April 21, the "VICTORY" political bloc, a pro-Russian alliance supported by oligarch Ilan Shor, was formed in Moscow. The bloc aims to participate in the presidential elections and the EU accession referendum to be held in the autumn.

Although the unification of Moldova and Romania has never been seriously discussed, we can frequently read reports in the Russian press that Moldova might want this. However, Gagauzia has always opposed unification with Romania and has declared that if this were to happen, it would declare its independence and ask for help from Russian troops. The authorities in Gagauzia do not even support the idea of the Republic of Moldova's integration into Europe, even at a time when the EU has invested over 11 million euros in the form of grants. Moreover, a significant portion of the Gagauz work in EU countries after leaving Turkey, where they worked for years. However, Gagauzia prefers integration into the Eurasian Economic Union. While the Republic of Moldova could join the EU in the first stage without Transnistria, political instability in Gagauzia could pose a significant obstacle to the accession process.

The Governor of Gagauzia is making efforts to tie the region to Russia politically and economically. Although the Russian food safety agency Rosselkhoznadzor has banned the import of fruits and vegetables from the Republic of Moldova, it allows the import of Gagauz agricultural products. The Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office of the Republic of Moldova has sent the case of Gagauz Governor Evghenia Gutul to court. She is accused of knowingly accepting money from an organized criminal group. However, Gutul stated that the file was fabricated "on the orders of the country's president, Maia Sandu."

It is not the first time that Gagauzia has sought independence. In the 2014 referendum, approximately 97% of the Gagauz voted against joining the EU. They prefer the Customs Union created by Russia. The authorities in Chișinău said the Gagauz referendum was illegal. The law on the autonomous region states that Gagauzia has its own parliament and government. Furthermore, the law states, "In the event of a change in the status of the Republic of Moldova as an independent state, the people of Gagauzia have the right to self-determination." 

WHAT DOES TURKEY SAY? 

Turkey is one of the largest investors in Gagauzia, carrying out projects in various fields such as education, health, and infrastructure. Former Speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey Mustafa Şentop said during his official visit to Gagauzia in 2022: "The future of Gagauzia is not elsewhere, but in Moldova. Gagauzia is an inseparable part of Moldova." 

The Gagauz are a highly Russified ethnic group, and we must say here that the central authorities of Moldova bear the blame for allowing Russia to be so influential on their own territory. The central government in Chișinău did not work effectively with the Gagauz, and this was also reflected in the general election results. Despite the ban on Russian television stations in Moldova and the closure of local pro-Russian channels, Russian propaganda is quite strong in Gagauzia. Russia invests in education and cultural projects. 

This geopolitical game could cause a major headache for all of us, especially for the Republic of Moldova and Gagauzia, as we can all guess, and for Turkey as well.