The Republic of Moldova's historic test

The year 2024 is a busy one in terms of elections. The US presidential elections are attracting the attention of the Turkish public as well as foreign audiences. However, there are also countries where the election results in Turkey's immediate vicinity will affect the political spectrum in this region. One of the countries where presidential elections will be held is the Republic of Moldova, with which Turkey has good bilateral cooperation relations. On October 20, elections will be held in Moldova for the first time since the war in Ukraine began. On the same day, Moldovans are invited to participate in a referendum to amend the country's Constitution. In the referendum, Moldovans will answer the question: "Do you support amending the Constitution for the purpose of the Republic of Moldova's accession to the EU?"

Presidential elections

11 candidates will participate in the presidential elections to be held on October 20. The election race will largely take place between the country's current president, Maia Sandu (pro-Western), and Alexandr Stoyanoglo, a politician of Gagauz ethnic origin and a former prosecutor. Stoyanoglo is a candidate supported by the pro-Russian Socialist Party, led by the country's former president, Igor Dodon. Maia Sandu is seen as the favorite for the presidential position. Under her leadership, Moldova was granted candidate country status to the EU and accession negotiations were launched. The Russia-Ukraine war has been a catalyst that accelerated the European integration of Moldova and Ukraine. However, Sandu is heavily criticized for the modest reforms in the justice system and the fight against corruption that she promised her voters.

The war in Ukraine has radically changed relations between Moldova and Russia. Moldovan officials support Kyiv, and bilateral relations with Moscow are frozen at every level. This situation has also affected bilateral economic relations. Currently, the economy of the Republic of Moldova is very strongly tied to the European Union. Almost 70% of the country's exports go to European Union countries. While one could find Russian products on market shelves before the war, they have now been replaced by Ukrainian products.

Moldova has two major territorial issues: Transnistria and Gagauzia (a region that has autonomy and tends to become a problem for Moldova). Russia's influence can be felt intensely in both regions. The Russian 14th Army is stationed in Transnistria. In Gagauzia, politicians supported by Moscow are in power. The current head of Gagauzia, Evghenia Gutsul, is a representative of the party of fugitive businessman Ilan Shor. Ilan Shor was sentenced to 15 years in prison in Moldova for stealing 1 billion dollars from the state budget.

EU accession referendum

In my opinion, Moldova's EU accession referendum is a formality. Why do I say this? Because a significant portion of Moldovan citizens hold Romanian or Bulgarian citizenship (around 1 million according to official figures). Therefore, they automatically become European citizens. Moreover, a significant portion of them already live in EU countries. Even if the residents of Gagauzia declare that they are against joining the EU, 42 percent of exports from Gagauzia in 2022 went to the EU, while this rate was only 8 percent in Russia.

EU accession was also on the agenda of the communists who ruled the country between 2001 and 2009, meaning it is a subject familiar to Moldovans. According to survey data, more than half of the country's population will vote in favor of joining the EU.

I should note that none of the presidential candidates are radically opposed to the country's European integration. Some candidates say that perhaps it is not the right time for accession (as if EU accession were to happen in a very short time). The only exception to this is the candidate of the "Victory" bloc, led by the fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, whom I mentioned above, who is a citizen of Moldova, Israel, and recently Russia.

Russian influence

Russia has never wanted to lose its influence in the former Soviet geography. In this sense, Moldova is no exception. Precisely for this reason, Russia's propaganda machine is working at maximum performance during this period. For example, Russian propaganda tries to convince Moldovans that EU membership means a loss of sovereignty and poses a threat to the country's security. Furthermore, they try to make Moldovans believe that if they vote to join the EU, they will have to fight alongside NATO in the war in Ukraine, and they try to convince them that NATO and the EU mean the same thing. In elections in past years, candidates supported by Moscow used to say that if they lost the elections, Moldova would have to host 30 thousand Syrians. They lost the elections, but the Syrians never came. I suppose they stayed in Turkey. Another development that scares Moldova was the statement by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zaharova that if Moldova joins the EU, Moldovan children will be taken away and their genders will be changed. What can I say? The comments are yours. The propaganda creativity of the Russians knows no bounds. The Kremlin accuses Moldovan officials of promoting a policy of Russophobia.

Although Moldova has a shared history and shared Orthodox Christian values with Russia, I can say that Russia has lost the "soft power" test before the West, that is, the war to win the hearts and sympathies of Moldovans. Let me give you an example. For years, whenever Moscow did not like the behavior of the government in Chisinau, everyone knew that economic sanctions would follow. They would come up with nonsensical reasons such as there being too much pesticide in the fruits or the wine being too "sour"! Moscow's reaction was always harsh and affected the sensitive spot where Moldova was most vulnerable, namely its economy. On the other hand, what were the Americans doing, for example? The newly appointed US ambassador would address the Moldovan people in Romanian every time (even if they were reading from a paper or a screen), and this gesture was highly appreciated by Moldovans every time, because, as in most countries, the language issue is a very sensitive subject in Moldova.

The war in Ukraine has further damaged Russia's image in Moldova. Russia said it was defending the rights of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine. But how? By bombing Ukraine. It seems that ethnic Russians in Moldova do not want their rights to be defended in this way.

Moldova has a difficult, turbulent past. It is a small, poor country where people still elect these politicians by saying "he steals, but he also gives to us." Over the years, I have seen how the country has changed and what people want. Moldovans want peace; above all, they want reform and prosperity.

When I was a child, the following saying was used in the environment I was in, which I will never forget: "If only the Germans had come and conquered us. Look at the Germans and those in the West, how they live. Look at us and those in the East?" The explanation of those people contained a lot of lived pain and regret. Therefore, these elections are an important chance for Moldovans on October 20 to help their country and ensure that there is no more regret and pain left in the hearts of future generations.